Russian attacks increase Ukraine's need for foreign aid, Bloomberg report finds
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With economic activity expected to contract in 2026 for the first time since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion, continued Western funding will be increasingly important to sustaining Ukraine’s defense and keeping the state functioning, a report by Bloomberg found.
Over the last six months, Russian forces have expanded their targeting beyond energy facilities to target business infrastructure and civilian transport networks, using missiles and drones, according to a Bloomberg Economics report. The strikes are disrupting production, logistics and exports, adding to the economic pressure caused by the war.
Bloomberg Economics analysts Ekaterina Vlasova and Alex Kokcharov said that while an immediate economic collapse was unlikely, sustaining the war through 2027 would increasingly depend on "timely, reliable and adequate" Western financing.
President Volodymyr Zelensky said in October that Ukraine would need 70 billion euros ($78 billion) to finance its defense in 2027.
The EU, Ukraine’s largest international donor, established a 90-billion-euro ($100.5 billion) support loan split between 2026 and 2027. Last week, the European Commission presented its proposal for the 2027 tranche, including 13.3 billion euros ($14.9 billion) in budget support and 31.7 billion euros ($35.4 billion) to strengthen Ukraine’s defense industry.
The EU Council must approve the proposed allocation before the funds can be disbursed, with payments expected to begin in early 2027.
But upcoming presidential elections in France and parliamentary elections in Italy and Poland next year could threaten continued assistance to Ukraine, the report notes.
The National Bank of Ukraine downgraded the country's 2026 economic outlook, changing its previous forecast of 1.8% growth to an expected contraction of 0.4%. If confirmed, this would be the first annual decline in Ukraine’s gross domestic product since 2022, when the economy shrank by more than 30% following Russia’s full-scale invasion.
The central bank said intensified Russian attacks were a major factor behind the revised forecast. Economic activity also weakened in the third quarter, with manufacturing, trade and agriculture affected, while metal and mining producers suffered particularly heavy losses.
