The second line of the Ukrainian national anthem — “Fate/luck still smiles on us, fellow Ukrainians” — sadly no longer holds. Much worse, we should extend this retreat of luck to Europe itself: Fate/luck no longer smiles on us, fellow Europeans. The situation is now so serious that the same
As many others have now concluded, this year’s Munich Security Conference (MSC) was pretty remarkable. Indeed, it may have been as defining an event as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s infamous 2007 speech, which marked a shift toward a more openly hostile Russian policy toward the West. That shift
U.S. President Donald Trump says he wants to bring peace to Ukraine. But his approach cannot work, because it fails to address the problem of security guarantees. There will be no peace as long as Ukraine must face Russia on its own. But perhaps this flaw can be overcome.
The U.S. administration is ready to hand Russia a win in its brutal war against Ukraine. That’s the only conclusion we can make after following the news this week. If anyone held onto hopes that U.S. President Donald Trump would be tough on Russia’s Vladimir Putin,
The following op-ed is based on a broader report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published on Feb. 11, 2025. Some peace deals lead to peace; others lead to more war. The Minsk II deal, aimed at ending Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine in 2014, instead
Like people in other regions, Europeans face the challenge of discerning what motives underlie U.S. President Donald Trump’s verbal provocations. After all, what Trump really wants is often unclear, which makes it difficult to devise a strategically effective response. Traditionally, Europeans have interpreted American foreign policy through a
On Feb. 10, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that he aimed to secure “$500 billion worth of rare earth” minerals as part of negotiations over continued U.S. support for Ukraine amid its war with Russia. When history repeats itself, it’s time to reflect. At the beginning
There are still many questions about what to expect from the Trump administration’s approach to ending Russia’s war in Ukraine. With some in Congress questioning continued military aid and loans for Ukraine, the application of economic statecraft measures —such as sanctions, export controls, and tariffs — could be used
“The biggest problem is the lack of people.” These words, heard by journalists, including myself, from Ukrainian soldiers and commanders across the front line for the past year, are no outlier. For most of 2024 and into 2025, Ukraine’s biggest issue on the battlefield has not been firepower but
Another year has passed, and we are once again analyzing Ukraine’s position in the Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI). This year, Ukraine lost one point, now with 35 out of 100 possible points, ranking 105th out of 180 countries. While the loss of a single point falls within the margin
The fall of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad has dealt a significant blow to Russia’s ambitions in the Middle East. Yet Russia still retains influence across the region through trade, diplomacy, and military ties. Even now, Moscow maintains a presence in Syria, making it imperative for the West to capitalize
Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the international community has sent nearly $11 billion in humanitarian aid, with billions more from individuals, charities, and Ukrainians. The UN recently announced a new $3.3 billion appeal for 2025. Yet, despite this support, key players in humanitarian aid — state donors,
The European Union and NATO must strengthen cooperation to protect critical energy infrastructure from attacks, which pose a growing threat to European stability. The Kremlin, with its history of weaponizing energy, remains a prime suspect. NATO must properly secure the Baltic Sea — the so-called NATO lake. The Baltic states achieved
Editor’s Note: This article was published by the twice-weekly newsletter “The Counteroffensive with Tim Mak” on Feb. 8, 2025, and has been re-published by the Kyiv Independent with permission. To subscribe to The Counteroffensive, click here. Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine — In the early hours of December 2024, as the sun
Europe’s window to ban Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) is closing faster than we think. As a second Trump administration takes shape, Europe's opportunity to impose new, meaningful measures on Russian fossil fuels is rapidly diminishing. U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to end the war allegedly includes
Ukraine has become a war lab for the future since the onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Driven by necessity, it has had no choice but to rely on rapid innovations to fight back. As a result, Ukraine is at the forefront of military technology, leveraging robotics and automation to
Despite the uncertainty surrounding a potential resolution to the war, Ukrainians know one thing for sure: we must ramp up our defense capabilities to effectively defend against current and future Russian aggression. This requires the rapid development of asymmetrical solutions to counter Russia's advantages in personnel, material, and financial resources.
The recent shake-up at the State Financial Monitoring Service of Ukraine (SFMS), responsible for combating money laundering and terrorist financing, has drawn mixed reactions. Some see it as a step toward fighting corruption and financial crime, while others view the changes with caution, uncertain about the motivations behind the overhaul.
Norway’s government has effectively become a war profiteer, we argued in a commentary in December. It is an opinion shared by a number of European politicians, and by European and Norwegian media. But rather than paying attention, Norway’s government is getting defensive. The basic facts are not up
Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, concerns over the security of energy and communication infrastructure in the Baltic Sea intensified. Initially, focus was placed on the threat of hybrid attacks from Russia. However, it became evident that Russian military vessels and so-called "research" ships were actively mapping the
Russian President Vladimir Putin is starting 2025 with a bang. In a nod to U.S. President Donald Trump’s desire for a settlement in Ukraine, the Kremlin has announced its readiness for negotiations “without preconditions.” However, the devil is in the details. For Russia, “without preconditions” translates to cutting
Editor's Note: After this op-ed was published, the Kyiv Independent launched a fundraiser to save three Ukrainian newsrooms that suffered from the aid freeze. It probably made sense on paper. In his first week in office, U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a 90–day freeze on U.S. foreign
The discussions at the World Economic Forum in Davos were a stark reminder of how interconnected the global economy is, and how Ukraine’s stability — or lack thereof — affects us all. From military aid to economic sanctions, the steps we take now will shape the future not just for Ukraine,
“We’re at yet another turning point,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told global leaders in Davos last week, “which some see as a problem for Europe, but others call a chance. Europe must establish itself as a strong global player, as an indispensable player.” Zelensky is completely right. He is
Just one week into his presidency, U.S. President Donald Trump has hinted at his approach to U.S. sanctions on Russia. On Truth Social last week, he called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to “settle now and STOP this ridiculous War! IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE,” adding,
I first visited the looted museums of Kherson, a city in southern Ukraine, in May 2024. At the time, my team at the Kyiv Independent’s War Crimes Investigations Unit and I were beginning an investigation into the illegal export of artifacts from Kherson to occupied Crimea by Russian forces
In 2022, Lithuania’s then-Culture Minister Simonas Kairys decided that performing Russian composer Pyotr Illyich Tchaikovsky’s classic ballet "The Nutcracker" was no longer an appropriate way to celebrate the Christmas season. Lithuania is a staunch supporter of Ukraine, and Kairys, believing that Russian culture could not be separated from
Ukrainian society largely does not want to mobilize. Nearly 6 million Ukrainian men have not updated their information in military enlistment centers, and most of them likely don't have grounds for a deferment or exemption. Forced mobilization of these men is categorically opposed by society. Rosy-cheeked aunts gather and shout
Intelligence officials in the U.S. and Europe have suggested that recent incidents damaging critical cables in the Baltic Sea were accidental, according to a Washington Post report. Western geostrategic self-deception has overly emphasized fears of escalation and cornering Russia. It would be naïve to assume that the repeated cutting
The impending Donald Trump presidency has fueled market speculation that a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could be reached soon — bolstered by Trump’s campaign trail rhetoric promising to end the war within days of taking office, if not sooner. Ukrainian Eurobonds have been among the best-performing assets in
Listening to the confirmation hearings of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's various appointees in Congress this week, it's becoming clear there is no meaningful grand plan from Trump to end the war in Ukraine quickly. In fact, Trump, along with figures like Keith Kellogg, the incoming Ukraine envoy, has backtracked
The Economist recently reported that Ukraine is winning the economic war against Russia for the first time since the full-scale invasion began. Although the country has yet to return to its pre-war economic levels, the trajectory is promising. To sustain and accelerate this momentum, strategic investments, particularly in education, are
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