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Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, on Feb. 5, 2026.
Opinion

We've overestimated Russia for too long

by Casey Michel

The recent anniversary of Russia's expanded invasion, which is now stretching into its fifth year, is as good a time as any to take stock of the state of the war itself. For Ukraine, the fighting remains existential, and it is Ukrainians themselves who continue to suffer and to sacrifice not just on behalf of their own defense, but on behalf of broader stability in Europe. Somehow, though, many Western partners still fail to see one clear fact: that it is Russia, and not Ukraine, who has suffer

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Friday, February 27

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Andriy Portnov, a former Ukrainian top official, was gunned down in Madrid on May 21, 2025. The Spanish police reported on Feb. 25, 2026, that a suspect in Portnov's murder had been arrested in the German town of Heinsberg. The motives of the killing, however, remain unknown. The detained suspect is linked to both Ukraine and Russia, according to an investigation by the Ukrainska Pravda media outlet published on Feb. 27. The suspect's profile doesn't contradict the two main alleged motives —

The screenshot shows Andriy Portnov, during a program on the Ukraine TV channel in October 2019.

We've overestimated Russia for too long

The recent anniversary of Russia's expanded invasion, which is now stretching into its fifth year, is as good a time as any to take stock of the state of the war itself. For Ukraine, the fighting remains existential, and it is Ukrainians themselves who continue to suffer and to sacrifice not just on behalf of their own defense, but on behalf of broader stability in Europe. Somehow, though, many Western partners still fail to see one clear fact: that it is Russia, and not Ukraine, who has suffer

Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, Russia, on Feb. 5, 2026.

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