Key developments on April 1:
- Russia's territorial gains in Ukraine drop to lowest level since June 2024, monitoring group says
- Some Russians celebrated Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow, intercepted calls suggest
- 'So far, it doesn't mean anything' — Russia launches no mass drone strike against Ukraine overnight
- 73% of Ukrainians say Trump is bad for Ukraine, poll shows
- Russia submits list of alleged Ukrainian ceasefire violations to US, UN and OSCE, Lavrov says
Russian forces' advance into Ukraine has slowed significantly in the past few months, with Moscow seizing just 133 square kilometers in March, the lowest monthly total since June 2024, battlefield monitoring group DeepState reported on April 1.
The pace of Russia's offensive had steadily increased since July, peaking in November when Russian troops captured 725 square kilometers, overrunning a badly overstretched Ukrainian defense in several areas, especially in the south of Donetsk Oblast.
Gains have consistently declined since the beginning of winter, with the Russian army seizing 401 square kilometers in December, 321 in January, and 189 in February.
This relative stabilization of the front line was achieved thanks to the winter conditions, effective work of Ukrainian drone units, and a temporary exhaustion of Russian offensive potential.
Russian forces continue offensive operations, particularly around the city of Pokrovsk in in Donetsk Oblast, where fighting intensified at the end of March.
Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on March 31 that Russian forces are "stalling" and failing to advance in the area. Pokrovsk, located about 70 kilometers northwest of Donetsk, remains a major flashpoint.
While Russia's advances in Ukraine have slowed, its forces have nearly reversed Ukraine's territorial gains in Russia's Kursk Oblast. Ukraine controlled 407 square kilometers there in early March but held just 70 square kilometers by month's end, DeepState reported.
Ukraine had initially seized 1,300 square kilometers of Russian territory before Moscow, reinforced by North Korean units, launched a counteroffensive. Since launching operations in Kursk Oblast, Russian forces have suffered over 55,000 casualties, Syrskyi said on March 27.
DeepState warned that Russian forces previously engaged in Kursk may now be redeployed elsewhere, posing additional threats along the front line.
Kate Tsurkan
'So far, it doesn't mean anything' — Russia launches no mass drone strike against Ukraine overnight
Russian forces did not launch a mass drone strike against Ukrainian civilian targets overnight on April 1, according to the Air Force's reports.
"We'll keep monitoring; so far, it doesn't mean anything," National Security and Defense Council official Andrii Kovalenko said on his Telegram channel.
Russian forces nevertheless attacked Ukraine with two Kh-59/69 guided missiles, targeting Zaporizhzhia Oblast, the Air Force said in its regular morning update. The missiles were reportedly shot down.
The report mentioned no drone attacks, and the Air Force did not announce any alarms connected to drone strikes overnight.
This would mark the first instance in 2025 when Russia did not attempt to strike Ukrainian cities, villages, and infrastructure with kamikaze drones en masse.
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast officials nevertheless reported drone attacks against the region "between the evening and the morning," not commenting on the number of drones and revealing only limited damage.
Despite this supposed pause on mass drone strikes against civilian targets, Russian drones have continued to engage Ukrainian forces in front-line operations. The General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces reported the destruction of 46 Russian operational-tactical drones over the past 24 hours.
Russian forces also continued attacking Ukrainian towns and villages with other weaponry, including KAB bombs and artillery, inflicting civilian casualties.
Moscow's forces have been attacking Ukraine with unmanned aerial vehicles nearly on a daily basis, though there have been sporadic breaks in these strikes.
The development follows an agreement on an energy ceasefire concluded by Ukraine, Russia, and the U.S. in Riyadh on March 25. Russian forces have repeatedly attacked Ukrainian civilian targets, allegedly including energy facilities, since then.
Some Russians celebrated Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow, intercepted calls suggest
Russians living in oblasts bordering Ukraine have celebrated recent drone attacks against Moscow as people living there "live their lives without fear," according to a series of intercepted calls released by Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) on March 29–31.
On March 11, Ukraine launched the largest drone attack against Russia's capital during the full-scale war. Seventy-four drones were shot down on approach to Moscow in the early hours of the day.
Belgorod and Bryansk oblasts border Ukraine and often come under attack as they are two regions from which Russian forces launch missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian cities.
Phone conversations intercepted by HUR suggest that some Russians living in these oblasts welcomed the news of the attack on Moscow. They presented it as a chance for those living in the capital to experience the effects of the war that they witness on a regular basis.
"So we can be f**king bombed, but Moscow Oblast is not? Let the bastards shut up and stay put!" one woman in Russia’s Bryansk Oblast said in a call released by HUR on March 29.
"They live their lives without fear, without knowing anything. Let them be at least a little bit afraid," the person she was speaking to responded.
In Belgorod Oblast, one woman said she had been kept awake by drones flying overhead in the direction of Moscow, according to an intercepted call released on March 30.
"They should have targeted Moscow right away to make them take action," she said, adding: "Otherwise, poor people are suffering, and Moscow is dancing and singing."
"If they don't take some (defense) measures, we'll all be screwed," she added.
In another conversation published on March 31, two men in Belgorod Oblast speculated that the reason their TVs were not working was because of electronic warfare countermeasures being used against Ukrainian drones.
"Well, (there were) 50 drones, as I read today. Let them bomb the Kremlin," one of the men said.
"To hell with them. Let them (bomb)," the other replied.
The Kyiv Independent could not verify the authenticity of the intercepted calls.
Kyiv uses long-range drones to strike deep into Russian territory, targeting military infrastructure such as airfields, oil refineries, and logistics hubs, and Ukraine's arsenal is set for a boost after the announcement last month that a new variant had the longest range of any in its arsenal and had successfully completed testing.
"Our drone with a 3,000-kilometer range has passed testing," President Volodymyr Zelensky said during his evening address on March 17.
Though there were no other details give, the range dramatically expands the amount of Russian territory that would be vulnerable.
Federico Borsari, a fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told the Kyiv Independent that it's likely the new drone has a fixed-wing structure and a turbojet engine.
"Similar to a very cheap cruise missile," he added.
If Borsari is correct, this would make it a longer-range version of Ukraine's Palianytsia missile drone, which was revealed last year and is thought to have a range of between 500 and 700 kilometers.
Fabian Hoffmann, a defense expert and doctoral research fellow at the University of Oslo, told the Kyiv Independent that the longer range will allow Ukraine to significantly expand its current drone campaign, and he expects the type of targets will remain the same.
"More critical infrastructure, oil refineries, oil processing facilities," he said, adding: "The other thing that immediately comes to mind is production facilities for various types of equipment on the Russian side that probably was outside of the target radius of previous drone systems."
73% of Ukrainians say Trump is bad for Ukraine, poll shows
Around 73% of Ukrainians believe that U.S. President Donald Trump is bad for Ukraine, a major spike from December 2024, when only 21% saw him negatively, a survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) published on April 1 said.
Last December, after Trump was reelected but before he took office, 54% of Ukrainians believed that the new U.S. president would have a positive impact on Ukraine. Only 19% thought so in March, KIIS said.
The Trump administration has brought a major shift to Washington's policy on Ukraine.
Pledging to broker a swift peace deal, Trump has sought to renew ties with Russia while repeatedly praising his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The U.S. president has also strong-armed Ukraine into ceasefire negotiations by temporarily cutting off military and intelligence support early in March before publicly berating President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office on Feb. 28.
Between March 12 and 22, 55% of Ukrainians said they expect a rather or completely unjust peace deal from Trump, a minor drop from 58% between Feb. 14 and March 4 but a significant increase from 31% in December.
In turn, 23% of Ukrainians believed that Trump would bring a just peace in December 2024, 11% between Feb. 14 and March 4, and 18% between March 12 and 22.
March 11 saw the U.S. and Ukraine agree on a 30-day ceasefire, which was perceived positively among Ukrainians, but Moscow has rejected the deal.
Russia only agreed to a partial ceasefire on strikes against energy facilities and in the Black Sea. Kyiv has already accused Russia of violating the energy ceasefire, while the future of the Black Sea ceasefire is in doubt as Moscow has linked it to the lifting of some Western sanctions.
Ukrainians now see Europe as a more reliable ally than the U.S. While 64% of respondents said they think European partners want Ukraine to achieve peace on acceptable terms, only 24% think this about the U.S.
Some 67% of Ukrainians believe that the U.S. is tired of supporting Ukraine and is pushing for concessions on Kyiv's part.
The survey reflects the shifting mood in Ukraine regarding Trump's presidency. Earlier research showed that before Jan. 20, many Ukrainians hoped for Trump to be more decisive in pressuring Russia toward a just peace than his predecessor, former President Joe Biden.
The Biden administration donated more than $100 billion in military and economic support to Ukraine during the full-scale war. At the same time, the ex-president's policy has been criticized as overly cautious and self-restricting.
Trump has not approved any additional aid packages, only allowing the continued flow of the previously approved support. His administration also gutted various programs that Ukraine benefited from, from USAID programs funding energy infrastructure and civil society to a project tracking abducted Ukrainian children.
Russia submits list of alleged Ukrainian ceasefire violations to US, UN and OSCE, Lavrov says
Russia has sent a list of alleged Ukrainian violations of the partial energy ceasefire to the U.S., the U.N., and OSCE, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on April 1, according to state-owned media TASS.
"The list of violations cited by (Defense Minister) Andrei Belousov at the Security Council meeting, we handed over to U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz," he said.
Lavrov added that the document was also sent to Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russia's representatives in the U.N. and OSCE, claiming it proves Ukraine's lack of credibility in adhering to agreements.
The statement comes after President Volodymyr Zelensky instructed Defense Minister Rustem Umerov on March 28 to provide the U.S. with evidence of Russia's failure to uphold the ceasefire.
The U.S. helped broker the partial ceasefire on March 25 following talks with Ukraine and Russia in Riyadh. The agreement was meant to pause strikes on energy facilities and military operations in the Black Sea.
Only two days later, Zelensky claimed that Russian forces had attacked Kherson's energy infrastructure, calling for a response from Washington.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov insisted Russia has adhered to the agreement but warned it "reserves the right" to abandon it if Ukraine violates the terms.
Moscow accused Kyiv of attacking the Sudzha gas metering station, a charge Ukraine rejected as an attempt to justify further strikes.
The U.S. has not yet responded to the reported violations. Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukraine's power grid since launching its full-scale invasion, while Ukraine has used long-range drones to strike Russian oil and gas facilities.
Kyiv had agreed to a full 30-day ceasefire in U.S.-mediated talks in Jeddah on March 11, but Russia rejected the proposal unless it included conditions limiting Ukraine's military capabilities, including a halt to foreign military aid.
Asami Terajima
Note from the author:
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