Key developments on July 15:
- Last Russian patrol ship left occupied Crimea, Ukraine's navy says
- Mobilization is going 'according to plan,' but there are not enough training facilities, Zelensky says
- Syrskyi orders inspection of 59th Motorized Brigade after recent losses
- 44% of Ukrainians believe it's time to start official peace talks with Russia, survey finds
- Spain says 10 more Leopard 2 tanks en route to Ukraine
- Stoltenberg signals opposition to Poland downing missiles over Ukraine
The last patrol ship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet left occupied Crimea on July 15, Dmytro Pletenchuk, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Navy, confirmed to the Kyiv Independent.
"The last patrol ship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet is just now leaving our Crimea. Remember this day," Pletenchuk wrote on Facebook.
The vessel's designation was Project 1135, he said. This patrol ship is not a carrier of cruise missiles, which Russia is using to attack Ukraine, but is equipped with other weapons, Pletenchuk told the Kyiv Independent.
One of the two such vessels departed from Crimea "a long time ago," and the other left occupied Sevastopol on July 15, he added.
"Given that they (Russia) have not been able to patrol for a while, the movement vector... We can assume that this is a transition between bases," Pletenchuk said.
"(This move) indicates the Russians' understanding that they must leave Crimea. At least (their) ships."
Ukraine has repeatedly struck Russia's vessels since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Around 30% of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is lost or disabled, according to the Ukrainian military.
Successful Ukrainian strikes on occupied Crimea forced Moscow to pull out much of its naval forces from the peninsula to the Russian port city of Novorossiysk which became a key port for the Russian Black Sea Fleet.
"The Russian Navy's sphere of influence in the Black Sea has been significantly reduced, and the whole world can see this today," Andrii Yusov, spokesperson for Ukraine's Defense Intelligence (HUR) told the Kyiv Independent earlier this month.
Andrii Kharuk
Mobilization is going 'according to plan,' but there are not enough training facilities, Zelensky says
Mobilization in Ukraine is going "according to plan," but there is currently a lack of training facilities for new soldiers, President Volodymyr Zelensky said on July 15, citing the Ukrainian military.
"Considering training facilities, there are not enough of them. They are already being expanded," Zelensky said during a press conference in Kyiv.
The president also recalled that the bilateral security agreement with Poland provides for the training of Ukrainian soldiers abroad. Ukrainians are training as part of the Ukrainian Legion in Poland.
The legion was officially announced as part of the security agreement signed by Zelensky and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk on July 8, which laid out further developments in political, economic, and military cooperation between Ukraine and Poland.
Unlike other specific legions in the Ukrainian Armed Forces, such as the Georgian Legion, the Freedom of Russia Legion, and the Belarusian Pahonia Regiment, the legion will be made up of Ukrainians.
Ukraine has made steps to update the legal framework around conscription to ramp up mobilization this year. Zelensky signed a new law on mobilization on April 16.
According to the newly implemented law, all military-aged men, with some exceptions, must update their military documents within 60 days from May 18 at public service centers and enlistment offices, or via the online application Rezerv+.
Asami Terajima
Syrskyi orders inspection of 59th Motorized Brigade after recent losses
Commander-in-Chief of Ukraine's Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi ordered an inspection of the 59th Separate Motorized Brigade "Yakiv Handziuk" due to the unit's recent losses, Ukraine's General Staff said on July 15.
The announcement came only a day after Azovstal defender and medic Kateryna Polishchuk, known under the nickname Ptashka ("bird"), called on Syrskyi and President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate the unit over the alleged misconduct of its commander, Bohdan Shevchuk.
"Since thousands of soldiers remain in the combat zone under Shevchuk's leadership, I ask you, Commander-in-Chief, to pay heed and conduct an internal investigation," Polishchuk wrote in a Facebook post on July 14, accusing Shevchuk of "criminal orders, negligence, actions that resulted in the deaths of a large number of troops," as well as careerism, removal of dissenting commanders, and other transgressions.
The General Staff's statement did not explicitly name Polishchuk nor Shevchuk and did not mention specific circumstances that led to the start of the investigation.
The 59th Brigade is deployed near Krasnohorivka in Donetsk Oblast, a front-line town under heavy pressure by Russian forces.
Polishchuk was captured by Russia in May 2022 after Azovstal, a metallurgical plant that served as Ukraine's last remaining holdout in besieged Mariupol, fell into Russian hands. The medic was released alongside over 200 defenders in the fall of the same year, joining the 59th Brigade and returning to the front soon after.
Last month, Zelensky dismissed Commander of the Joint Forces Lieutenant General Yurii Sodol.
Lieutenant Colonel Bohdan Krotevych, one of the Azov Brigade's commanders, said on June 23 that he filed an official complaint to the State Bureau of Investigation calling for an investigation of one of the generals.
The general in question was Sodol.
Francis Farrell
44% of Ukrainians believe it's time to start official peace talks with Russia, survey finds
Almost 44% of Ukrainians think that it is time for official peace negotiations with Russia, according to a survey published by the ZN.ua media outlet on July 15.
At the same time, a majority of respondents were also opposed to the current ceasefire conditions laid out by Russian President Vladimir Putin, which would entail the complete Ukrainian withdrawal from the four regions that are partially occupied by Russia.
Russia also illegally annexed Crimea in 2014 and currently fully controls the territory.
The figure nonetheless represented an increase in the number of Ukrainians who were in favor of negotiations compared to a similar poll conducted in May 2023, which found that 23% of respondents supported entering talks with Russia.
According to the ZN.ua survey, 35% said they were opposed to peace negotiations, and 21% said they were undecided. There was some degree of regional discrepancy in the results, with the highest number of respondents in favor of negotiations being in the south of Ukraine, at 60%.
Andreas Umland
In western Ukraine, 35% said they supported peace talks, a similar figure to those from eastern Ukraine (33%), where the bulk of the heaviest fighting and associated war-related destruction is ongoing.
An overwhelming majority of respondents (83%) said they were opposed to the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the partially occupied oblasts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, which were illegally annexed by Russia in October 2022.
Another 76% said they believed that Putin would only allow a peace deal on his own terms.
A slim majority (61%) were not ready to give any concessions to Russia in order to obtain a peace deal, and 66% of respondents said they still believed in military victory over Russia. More than half (51%) said that a return to the 1991 borders, which would include all four partially occupied regions and Crimea, to be the minimum conditions for a peace agreement.
Spain says 10 more Leopard 2 tanks en route to Ukraine
Madrid sent another 10 refurbished Leopard 2A4 battle tanks to Ukraine, the Spanish Defense Ministry announced on July 15.
The tanks were repaired, maintained and tested at the Santa Barbara Sistemas manufacturer in the province of Seville, according to the statement. With this batch, the total number of Leopard 2A4 tanks handed over from Spain to Ukraine has reached 20.
The next batch is scheduled to be shipped in the second half of 2024.
Next to tanks, Kyiv will also receive several excavators and a number of anti-tank missiles. The equipment is expected to arrive in Poland this weekend before being delivered to Ukraine's Armed Forces.
The Spanish government has provided Ukraine with military, humanitarian, and economic assistance since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion.
In late May, President Volodymyr Zelensky and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement between the two countries.
Under the deal, Madrid will provide Kyiv with the support of 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) in 2024 and 5 billion euros ($5.4 billion) by 2027.
Carl Bildt
Stoltenberg signals opposition to Poland downing missiles over Ukraine
NATO's outgoing Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg signaled that he opposes Poland shooting down Russian missiles in Ukrainian airspace in an interview for Ukrainian national television on July 14.
The possibility of Warsaw downing Russian missiles heading toward Poland through Ukraine was laid out in a recently signed Polish-Ukrainian security agreement.
While Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said that the matter is still under discussion, Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz explained that a decision by the entire NATO is necessary to take this step.
Asked about the issue in the interview, Stoltenberg said, "NATO will support Ukraine, and we have now increased our support...But NATO's policy is unchanged – we will not be involved in this conflict."
"So we support Ukraine in the destruction of Russian aircraft, but NATO will not be directly involved," he added.
At the same time, Stoltenberg voiced support for Ukraine to be able to strike military targets inside Russia with Western weapons.
In the wake of a Russian offensive into Kharkiv Oblast in May, the U.S. and Germany finally allowed Ukraine to use their arms to strike just across the border to disrupt Russian offensive activities.
Restrictions against strikes deep inside Russian territory remain in place. The U.K. recently said that it is discussing the possibility of Ukraine attacking targets inside Russia with Storm Shadow missiles, softening its previous declarations that Kyiv has the right to use British arms as it sees fit.
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