Russia planning to increase 'hybrid warfare' activity in Europe, Ukrainian intelligence warns

Russia's secret services have been tasked with increasing the number of attacks in Europe, Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR) warned in a statement on Oct. 2.

"The special services of the aggressor state of Russia have been tasked with increasing activity on the territory of the European Union and NATO states — this involves preparing for hybrid operations aimed at undermining aid to Ukraine and weakening the Alliance's capabilities," the statement says.

Acts of Russian "hybrid warfare" have included arson, assassinations, and a recent attempt to blow up Ukrainian Antonov cargo aircraft with modified FPV drones in Leipzig in August. On Sept. 1, Germany formally accused Russia of carrying out the attack.

"To carry out operations, including sabotage operations, the Kremlin plans to involve agents recruited by the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU) and the FSB of the Russian Federation in Europe. The Russian special services are targeting military facilities, critical infrastructure, and communication systems," the statement says.

"Among the aggressor's likely targets are Starlink satellite internet receiving stations located in European countries," HUR said.

Starlink, manufactured and operated by Elon Musk's SpaceX, is widely used for communications by the Ukrainian military.

On Sept. 24, Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Digital Affairs Minister Krzysztof Gawkowski told reporters that a fire at a Starlink ground station in Poland may have been a deliberate attempt to disrupt internet access used by Ukrainian forces at the front.

Gawkowski said there were indications that the fire at the station in Wola Krobowska, in Poland's Masovian Voivodeship, on the evening of Sept. 23, may have been an attempt to disrupt its operations.

The station is operated by the state-owned telecommunications company Exatel and serves as an internet hub that carries traffic through Poland, including to Ukraine, Gawkowski said.

He suggested Russia could be behind the incident, describing it as potentially part of Moscow's hybrid warfare. Polish authorities have not concluded their investigation into the incident.

European governments are stepping up preparations for possible Russian hybrid attacks as officials across the continent warn that Moscow could increasingly use drones, missiles, sabotage, and cyberattacks to test NATO countries and pressure them over their support for Ukraine.

"The Ukrainian Defense Ministry's Directorate of Defense warned its partners about the criminal plans of the aggressor state of Russia," the statement says.