Russia not close to encirclement of Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast despite claims, expert says
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Russian troops have not yet come close to encircling the town of Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast, Federico Borsari, a security expert at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA), told the Kyiv Independent on Sept. 23.
His comment follows Russian claims that Kupiansk, a strategically important town in northeastern Ukraine, had been encircled.
Victor Tregubov, spokesperson for Ukraine's Dnipro group of forces, also denied these claims, saying that Russia is trying to advance toward Kupiansk from the north.
"Russian forces are currently not close to fully encircling Kupiansk, although they have made incremental gains and are intensifying their efforts on multiple axes," Borsari said.
According to the expert, Russia’s renewed push to capture the town is primarily driven by a combination of "strategic logistical imperatives," the objective of creating a more favorable operational environment for future offensives, and the desire to regain lost territory to show some progress "domestically."
Russia occupied the town after the outbreak of the full-scale invasion in 2022, but was pushed out during a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the fall of that year.
Recent months saw renewed fierce fighting around Kupiansk, a town some 104 kilometers (65 miles) east of Kharkiv.
Andrii Besedin, head of the Kupiansk city military-civil administration, described on Sept. 21 the situation in the city as "critical."
Russian units have been attempting to infiltrate Ukrainian lines by going through gas pipelines or dressing up as civilians, the Ukrainian military previously reported, adding that the latter tactic continues a war crime.
Borsari believes that the likelihood of Kupiansk falling under full Russian control in the immediate future is "moderate."
"(It is) largely dependent on the sustained effectiveness of Ukrainian defensive operations and the rate of attrition on both sides," he added.
