War

More than 113,000 Russians cross into Georgia in a week as fears grow of new mobilization, Politico reports

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More than 113,000 Russians cross into Georgia in a week as fears grow of new mobilization, Politico reports
Russians are seen attempting to leave their country to avoid a military call-up for the Russia-Ukraine war as queues have formed at the Kazbegi border crossing in the Kazbegi municipality of Stepantsminda, Georgia, on Sept. 29, 2022. (Davit Kachkachishvili/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

More than 113,000 Russians crossed into Georgia via the Upper Lars checkpoint last week amid growing fears the Kremlin is preparing to announce a new mobilization wave, Politico reported on Aug. 28.

The spike in border crossings comes as the Kremlin undertakes increasingly aggressive recruitment measures, expands data collection on military reservists, and broadens the mandate for the National Guard, all of which have fueled speculation of an imminent call-up.

Earlier, Ukraine's Presidential Office issued a warning on Aug. 27, saying that Russia plans to mobilize 600,000 recruits over 2026 and 2027, with 300,000 to be called up this year and another 300,000 next year, according to a briefing from Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR).

"Russia's political leadership views an additional wave of mobilization as a response to the aggressor state's loss of the initiative in the war, the continued increase in personnel losses on the front, and the significant slowdown in contract recruitment across the regions," the Presidential Office said in a statement.

Alexey Tabalov, founder of the Russian human rights group School of the Conscript, told Politico his organization has seen a recent rise in requests for legal assistance from men of military age, "primarily from those in the military reserve."

President Volodymyr Zelensky said in early August that Ukrainian intelligence expected Russia to launch a "rapid mobilization" of several hundred thousand men by the end of the year.

Speaking to journalists earlier this week, Zelensky said Russia plans to mobilize around 300,000 people after the State Duma elections in September, but would avoid targeting major cities to minimize public backlash.

According to Zelensky, the newly mobilized troops would supplement existing recruitment inflows and could be used either to reinforce Russia's offensive on the "fortress belt" cities in Donetsk Oblast or to open new fronts elsewhere, including along Ukraine's northern border.

Georgia has seen this kind of border traffic before. In September 2022, when Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a partial mobilization that called up some 300,000 men, Georgia received more than 100,000 Russians within a week as one of the few countries bordering Russia to allow visa-free entry.

Since then, Russia has largely relied on contract soldiers to replenish its troops, while gradually expanding and developing new ways to attract recruits, including targeting university students.

The Kremlin has denied the mobilization rumors for months. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said this week that talk of a mobilization was "being planted by the Ukrainian authorities" to "ideologically destabilize the situation."

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Anna Fratsyvir

Assistant Opinion Editor

Anna Fratsyvir is an assistant opinion editor at the Kyiv Independent, with a background in broadcast journalism and international affairs. Previously, she worked as a news editor at the Kyiv Independent, and as a TV journalist at Ukraine’s public broadcaster Suspilne, covering global politics and international developments. Anna holds a Bachelor's degree in International Communications from Taras Shevchenko National University and is currently an MA candidate in International Relations at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).

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More than 113,000 Russians cross into Georgia in a week as fears grow of new mobilization, Politico reports