Ukraine reveals latest intelligence on Russia’s mobilization plans

Russia plans to mobilize 600,000 recruits in 2026-27 as growing public dissatisfaction with the war in Ukraine reduces the number of people willing to volunteer, Ukraine's President's Office said on Aug. 27.

Detailing a briefing from intelligence officials, the office said in a statement that mobilization will target 300,000 people this year and another 300,000 next year.

"Russia’s political leadership views an additional wave of mobilization as a response to the aggressor state’s loss of the initiative in the war, the continued increase in personnel losses on the front, and the significant slowdown in contract recruitment across the regions," the office said.

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has only once turned to forced mobilization to fill the ranks of its military: in fall 2022, when successive Ukrainian counteroffensive successes threatened a broader collapse of Russia's defense lines.

The move triggered an exodus of hundreds of thousands of Russians from the country, with long lines at border crossings, particularly at the state border with Georgia.

Since then, Russian President Vladimir Putin has gone to great lengths to avoid more large-scale forced mobilization, seeing it as a threat to his image as a provider of strength and stability to ordinary Russians apathetic to questions of politics and war.

Instead, Moscow has relied on lucrative bonuses offered to those who sign a contract, with responsibility resting largely on regional authorities to meet tough recruitment quotas.

The President's Office cites "internal Russian documents" that show the need for mobilization — a politically risky move for Putin — is fueled in part by "a significant increase in dissatisfaction with the war across the regions," which is said to be as high as 69% in some regions of Russia.

Kyiv has been vocal in recent weeks about the threat of another wave of Russian mobilization.

Speaking to journalists earlier this week, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia plans to mobilize around 300,000 people after State Duma elections in September, but will do so without touching the country's major cities in an effort to minimize backlash from society.

According to Zelensky, the 300,000 mobilized troops would complement existing inflows of recruits into the Russian army, and will either be used to boost Moscow's main offensive effort on the "fortress belt" cities of Donetsk Oblast, or to create new threats in other areas, including Ukraine's northern border.