Poll shows 55% of Russians expect war to end in 2026 — and want life back to 'normal'

More than half of Russians, 55%, expect the war against Ukraine to end in 2026 and hope for a return to what they describe as "normal life," according to a December poll by state-controlled pollster VTsIOM published on Dec. 24.

The findings come as Washington steps up diplomatic efforts to broker an end to Russia's full-scale war, now entering its fourth year, amid U.S. President Donald Trump's push to accelerate negotiations.

The survey, conducted by telephone among 1,600 respondents across Russia's 80 regions, asked participants an open-ended question about the events they most anticipate in the coming year.

While many respondents expressed hopes for an end to the fighting, they largely expect it to conclude on terms "proclaimed as its goals," reflecting continued alignment with the Kremlin's narrative.

VTsIOM also said 79% of respondents trust Russian President Vladimir Putin, while 74% approve of his foreign policy, figures the state pollster cited as evidence of continued public consolidation.

Separate data from the independent Levada Center, published on Dec. 22, suggest a more nuanced shift in public sentiment. According to that survey, only 25% of Russians support continuing the war — the lowest share since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

Levada researchers reported that 66% of respondents now believe Russia should move toward peace talks, a figure that has grown in recent months. Support for continuing the war remains higher among those who rely on state television and approve of Putin's actions.

The Levada poll surveyed 1,618 respondents across 50 Russian regions from Dec. 11 to 19.

Russian authorities have designated the Levada Center a so-called "foreign agent," a label widely used to pressure independent media and civil society groups.

The polling results emerge as U.S.-led negotiations intensify, though Moscow continues to be seen as a key obstacle to a settlement.

Russian officials have repeatedly rejected proposed compromises and continue to insist on maximalist demands, including Ukraine's withdrawal from the entire Donbas region, which includes Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts .