Russia won't use nuclear weapons against Ukraine or attack NATO, Finland's president says
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Russia will not use nuclear weapons against Ukraine or attack NATO, and Moscow's only option for escalating its war is mobilization, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in an interview published by Bild on Aug. 29.
"Firstly, I have intelligence. And secondly, we have a deterrent — and this deterrent is stronger than that of any other military power anywhere in the world." Stubb said. "It makes no sense for any power in the world to test the resolve of this alliance."
Russia is also suffering too many losses to allow Moscow to open a second front against another European country and cannot mobilize enough troops to do so, he said.
Fear that Russia could escalate or expand its war is the goal of Russian misinformation, Stubb said, dismissing concerns but still calling for Europe to "prepare for the worst in order to prevent it."
"At the moment, Russia's options for escalation are quite limited. The only thing Russia can still escalate with is mobilization. And I believe mobilization would have domestic political repercussions in Russia," he said.
Despite the political risk associated with another round of mobilization, Russia is likely to go ahead with the measure during the fall as the country faces record losses on the battlefield.
"If you look at the laws they are now introducing — which are essentially about closing borders and restricting freedom of movement — then that's an indication of it. Because the truth is, at this pace, they can't maintain their war effort for much longer."
Despite speculation and intelligence reports that Russia could conscript more troops in a new wave of mobilization, Moscow has denied it plans to do so.
Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov on Aug. 25 accused Ukrainian authorities of trying to "ideologically destabilize the situation" in Russia by spreading reports about a possible new Russian mobilization.
"All of this is being planted by the Ukrainian authorities," Peskov said, adding that "these are all fabricated stories that are deliberately being planted in the information space."
Despite a lack of meaningful battlefield gains in recent months, Russia also won't escalate by using nuclear arms against Ukraine, because China would not let Moscow do so, Stubb argued.
"This summer, the Chinese foreign minister visited me, and I brought up the subject. And he said, 'We will never allow that to happen.' And I believe that is a pretty effective deterrent," he said.
