Russia will be able to gain more territory in Ukraine as the full-scale war continues, possibly including the southern city of Odesa, businessman Elon Musk said in a post on X on March 30.
Musk, who currently ranks among the richest individuals in the world, has frequently weighed in on Ukrainian military affairs, advocating for territorial concessions to Russia and against U.S. aid to Kyiv.
"The longer the war goes on, the more territory Russia will gain until they hit the Dnipro, which is tough to overcome," Musk said.
"However, if the war lasts long enough, Odesa will fall too."
Musk said that Russia has "no chance" of conquering Ukraine completely, but "will certainly gain more land."
Musk also criticized Ukraine's summer counteroffensive, calling it "a tragic waste of life," and once again called for Ukraine to negotiate with Russia.
"Whether Ukraine loses all access to the Black Sea or not is, in my view, the real remaining question. I recommend a negotiated settlement before that happens," he said.
Musk is not alone in predicting that Russia may make territorial gains in 2024, but other commentators agree that the crucial factor in Ukraine's security prospects remains the provision of U.S. aid.
Bloomberg reported on Feb. 29 that Russian President Vladimir Putin still hoped to seize major Ukrainian cities, such as Kyiv and Odesa, and that Russia could breach Ukraine's defenses in the summer if allies do not provide more ammunition.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has also said that while Russia currently holds the initiative on the battlefield, the greatest threat to Ukraine is not the Russian military but rather the continued delays in funding from the U.S.
Musk did not address the funding delays in his assessment of the war. He has previously expressed opposition to U.S. financial assistance to Ukraine.
Congress is currently investigating Musk's company SpaceX due to allegations that Russian troops use Starlink satellite internet terminals in occupied territories of Ukraine.
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