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The US and Europe have a narrow window to change Russia's war trajectory

Editor's note: The op-ed is based on a broader report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published on Oct. 13, 2026. The United States and Europe risk squandering the best opportunity since 2022 to alter Russia's trajectory toward a longer and larger war. Ukraine currently has the best chance of seizing the strategic initiative against Russia since December 2022, even as it faces the greatest risk to its momentum. Russia's ballistic missile and jet-powered drone campaign against Ukr

A man is seen through a broken window inside a damaged building in Kyiv, Ukraine, on May 14, 2026.

About Reconstruction

Ukraine's reconstruction effort addresses damage estimated at at least $588 billion, according to a World Bank assessment. Russia's full-scale invasion has destroyed or damaged millions of residential buildings, thousands of schools and hospitals, and critical infrastructure across multiple oblasts. International donors and financial institutions coordinate recovery programs through mechanisms including the Multi-Agency Donor Coordination Platform.

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