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The US and Europe have a narrow window to change Russia's war trajectory

Editor's note: The op-ed is based on a broader report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), published on Oct. 13, 2026. The United States and Europe risk squandering the best opportunity since 2022 to alter Russia's trajectory toward a longer and larger war. Ukraine currently has the best chance of seizing the strategic initiative against Russia since December 2022, even as it faces the greatest risk to its momentum. Russia's ballistic missile and jet-powered drone campaign against Ukr

A man is seen through a broken window inside a damaged building in Kyiv, Ukraine, on May 14, 2026.

About Energy security

Ukraine's energy security has become severely compromised since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022, with systematic attacks destroying approximately 50% of thermal generation capacity and targeting natural gas storage facilities. The government works with European partners to diversify energy sources, strengthen grid connections with EU networks, and secure alternative fuel supplies, while defending remaining power infrastructure from ongoing Russian strikes.

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