Russian fortifications on and around the Kinburn Spit, part of Mykolaiv Oblast but attached to mainland Kherson Oblast, suggest Russia views the chance of a Ukrainian counteroffensive across the Dnipro River as a serious threat, the Institute of the Study of War wrote in its latest update.
Russia's current fortifications on and around the spit appear to show that Russian forces do not expect to defend it against a Ukrainian counteroffensive, the ISW said.
Rather, Russian forces "very likely expect" Ukraine to take the spit but will try to prevent its forces from advancing into mainland Kherson Oblast with layered lines of defense that Russian forces can fall back on if one collapses, according to the D.C.-based think tank.
These lines of defense suggest Russian forces fear Ukrainian forces could position themselves on or near the spit and use it as a base to launch attacks from the west on Russian positions that are "otherwise generally oriented to defend against counter-offensive operations from the north."
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