Key developments on Aug. 7:
- Russian offensive expected to wind down within 2 months, Budanov says
- Putin meets top Russian officials over Kursk region situation as more battles reported
- Ukrainian FPV drone hit Russian Mi-28 helicopter in 'historic' feat, SBU source says
- Ukrainian special forces raid Russian-occupied island in Black Sea
- Kyiv denies Russian claims of capturing Niu-York in Donetsk Oblast
The main thrust of Russia's offensive should come to a close within one and a half or two months, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) chief Kyrylo Budanov said in comments to graduates the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE), Forbes Ukraine reported.
"The practice of a 10-year war shows that the offensive potential of any side does not last more than two months. The Russian offensive operations are approaching three months, so there will be some decline," Budanov said.
Russia launched a new offensive in the northern part of Kharkiv Oblast back in May, but the advance eventually ran out of steam. The operation was seen by many experts as an attempt to distract and stretch Ukrainian forces thin.
In the meantime, Russia has continued to seize villages in Donetsk Oblast and push toward the towns of Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, which are said to be Moscow's main targets.
Budanov also said that after a "slight lull," Russia will try to attack again.
"We are preparing for this. Therefore, everything depends on ourselves, what our actions will be," he added.
"Are we just going to sit and wait, let four or five months pass, and everything will happen again? Or will we act proactively?"
General Oleksandr Pivnenko, the commander of Ukraine's National Guard, presented a similar timeline as Budanov back in July, when he estimated that the Russian offensive would wind down within a month and a half.
In May, Budanov said he expected Russia to launch a new offensive into Sumy Oblast after attacking near Kharkiv.
Moscow said on Aug. 6 that Ukrainian troops broke into Russia's Kursk Oblast, which borders with Sumy Oblast. The clashes on Russian soil were reported, but Kyiv has not commented on the fighting.
Francis Farrell
Putin meets top Russian officials over Kursk region situation as more battles reported
Russian President Vladimir Putin held a meeting with Russian Army Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov, Defense Minister Andrey Belousov, and other Russian top officials over clashes with Ukrainian troops in Russia's Kursk region on Aug. 7.
Moscow said that Ukrainian forces crossed the border into the Kursk region on Aug. 6, resulting in clashes on Russian soil that were described by Putin as "a large-scale provocation." Kyiv has not commented on the fighting in the area.
Russian pro-war Telegram channels claimed that fighting was ongoing in the region's towns of Sudzha and Korenevo, writing that the Russian military has retreated from the Sudzha gas metering station, which transits gas to Europe through Ukraine.
Vlitaliy Slashchov, the town's mayor, claimed that the situation in Sudzha, which is located some 10 kilometers (six miles) from the border with Ukraine, is "very tense," Russian state-controlled RIA Novosti news agency wrote.
Gerasimov told Putin via video that Ukrainian soldiers allegedly aimed to "seize" the territory of the Suzhansky district, but their "advance in the Kursk direction was halted."
These claims cannot be verified independently.
Satellite imagery obtained by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) shows significant damage to the Sudzha road border crossing point as of the morning of Aug. 6.
Kursk region lies on the border with Ukraine's Sumy Oblast, which has been experiencing daily Russian attacks since the liberation of its parts in April 2022.
Over the past day, Moscow's troops have increased aviation activity near the border areas of Sumy Oblast, dropping about 30 guided aerial bombs on the settlements, Ukraine's General Staff said in its latest update. The local authorities ordered further mandatory evacuation of the border settlements.
Kateryna Denisova
Ukrainian FPV drone hit Russian Mi-28 helicopter in 'historic' feat, source says
A Ukrainian first-person-view (FPV) drone hit a Russian Mi-28 attack helicopter over Russia's Kursk Oblast on Aug. 6, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent on Aug. 7.
The drone, operated by the Special Operations Center "A" of the SBU, managed to hit the helicopter's tail rotor, the source said, calling it "a unique special operation in military history."
Footage of the FPV drone ramming into the helicopter began circulating social media on Aug. 6. A day later, the full video was published by Ukrainian activist Serhii Sternenko.
While the source said that the helicopter was shot down, it is not immediately clear from the video what happened to the aircraft after the attack.
Russian military blogger Alexei Zemtsov, who runs the channel Voevoda Veshchaet, wrote on the evening of Aug. 6 that a Russian helicopter was hit and was forced to land. Zemtsov claimed that the crew survived and the aircraft was sent to repairs, but he did not specify its model.
According to Sternenko and several other observers, this is the first case of a successful hit by an FPV drone against a helicopter mid-air.
"The SBU once again demonstrated a high level of professionalism, creativity, and innovation in destroying the enemy. We still have many unexpected surprises for Russia," the source said.
The Kyiv Independent could not verify all the claims.
At least one similar but unconfirmed claim appeared on July 31. Forbes wrote at the time that, according to Russian military bloggers, a Ukrainian drone successfully destroyed Russia's Mi-8 transport helicopter in the sky near occupied Donetsk.
The outlet linked to a photo of what it presented as the burning Mi-8 wreckage but provided no visual evidence of the aircraft being hit by the drone.
Moscow said that Ukrainian forces crossed the border into Kursk Oblast on Aug. 6, resulting in clashes on Russian soil.
Though Kyiv has largely refused to comment on the fighting in the area, the crowd-sourced monitoring website DeepState said that one Russian Ka-52 attack helicopter and at least two tanks were destroyed in the battle.
The source's comments are another indication that Ukrainian forces are active in Kursk Oblast.
Kateryna Hodunova
Ukrainian special forces raid Russian-occupied island in Black Sea
Ukrainian special forces destroyed Russian "equipment, personnel, and fortifications" during a raid of Tendra Spit off the coast of the occupied part of Kherson Oblast, Ukraine's military intelligence service said on Aug. 7.
Tendra Spit is a shoal or a narrow island in the northern Black Sea southwest of the occupied Ukrainian mainland in Kherson Oblast.
"On Aug. 6, Special Operations Forces of the Artan Unit and the Maritime Center of Ukraine's HUR (military intelligence agency) carried out an operation in the northern part of the Black Sea," the intelligence agency said on Telegram.
An amphibious special forces group landed on Tendra Spit overnight and destroyed Russian armored vehicles, namely MT-LB amphibious personnel carriers, as well as electronic warfare systems and fortifications, HUR reported.
Russian troops also suffered losses, though the exact number of casualties is being determined, the statement read. HUR claimed that the Ukrainian assault group suffered no losses.
The Kyiv Independent could not verify the claims.
The Russian Defense Ministry did not mention an engagement on Tendra Spit in its daily reports.
According to HUR, this was not the first Ukrainian operation on Tendra Spit but "only a part of an ongoing broader plan of the Ukrainian Defense Forces."
Kateryna Denisova
Kyiv denies Russian claims of capturing Niu-York in Donetsk Oblast
A Ukrainian official on Aug. 6 denied that Russia fully captured the village of Niu-York in Donetsk Oblast, saying that "heavy fighting continues" there.
The front-line settlement of Niu-York lies just south of Toretsk, a town that has become one of the focal points of the Russian offensive in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian forces appear to have established a presence in the village. Earlier on Aug. 6, footage of what appears to be a soldier raising a Russian flag on top of a building in Niu-York emerged on social media.
The Ukrainian DeepState monitoring service geolocated the building as the Boarding School Number 38, located in the northwestern part of the village. The channel presented it as a signal of a "deteriorating tactical situation in the settlement and its loss in the near future."
Russian propagandist Vladimir Solovyov claimed the flag's footage as evidence that Niu-York fell to Russian hands. This was promptly denied by Andrii Kovalenko, the head of the counter-disinformation department at Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council.
"As of now, Niu-York has not been taken by Russia. Heavy fighting continues there," Kovalenko said on Telegram.
DeepState's map points to steady Russian advances in the village but indicates certain parts are still held by Ukraine.
The Kyiv Independent could not verify all the claims.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think-tank said on Aug. 5 that Russia had made "significant tactical advances in the Toretsk direction," pointing to geolocated footage of Russian forces in Druzhba east of Toretsk.
Russia also continues to press against other Donetsk Oblast towns, namely Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk.
Asami Terajima
