Russian forces are unlikely to achieve "operationally significant penetration" in the areas west of Avdiivka in Donetsk Oblast, despite limited Ukrainian troop withdrawals in surrounding villages, the U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on April 28.
"Russian forces may shift their target set to hit Ukrainian transportation infrastructure, logistics, and military storage facilities," analysts said.
In the latest attack on Kharkiv, Russian forces struck the city’s television broadcasting tower on April 22, causing the top half of the mast to collapse.
Despite indications that Russia is planning a renewed summer offensive, Ukraine will likely be able to curtail the effects of the renewed offensive if anticipated U.S. military aid arrives promptly, the U.S.-based think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed on April 21.
"Russian forces have reportedly launched Kh-69 missiles from 400 kilometers away from their targets, exceeding a previous estimated range of 300 kilometers and the 200-kilometer range of the most recent Kh-59MK2 variant."
The need to redistribute Ukraine's already thinning air defense systems to protect heavily targeted cities such as Kharkiv may lead to routine Russian attacks on rear logistics and cities in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in their April 10 report.
"(T)he distance of the targets from Ukraine's borders represents a significant inflection in Ukraine's demonstrated capability to conduct long-range strikes far into the Russian rear," the ISW said.
"Russian forces appear to struggle with properly deploying short-range air defense systems along expected flight vectors for Ukrainian drones, and the Russian military appears to have even failed to cover important potential targets in reportedly well-defended areas within Russia," the ISW said.
Russia's attacks against Ukraine overnight on March 21-22 represented "the largest series of combined drone and missile strikes targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure since the start of the full-scale invasion," the ISW said.
Although not an imminent threat, the ISW assesses that Russian President Vladimir Putin's emphasis on growing Russia's economic and military capabilities is an indication that Russia is gearing up for conflict beyond "a protracted war in Ukraine."
The Kremlin may either allocate extra barricades and border security forces to deflect criticism, or choose to keep the majority of military equipment and personnel in Ukraine to conserve resources.
In its latest report on March 13, the ISW highlighted that Ukraine is being forced to ration critical ammunition – in particular, artillery shells – and prioritize allocation based on those areas currently facing the most intense Russian attacks.
Russia is waging a disinformation campaign regarding peace negotiations to win preemptive concessions from the West ahead of talks, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its March 3 report.
The Kremlin has yet to signal an immediate route for escalation following the appeal of lawmakers in the Russian-controlled Moldovan region of Transnistria, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said in its latest assessment.
Russian forces may be able to make more gains north and northwest of Avdiivka, but rough terrain in areas farther west will slow down advancing troops.
"Russian forces have regained the theater-wide initiative and will be able to pursue offensive operations when and where they choose as long as they hold the initiative," the ISW said.
"More Russian soldiers have likely died to seize Avdiivka than died in the entire Soviet-Afghan war," ISW analysts said.
Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, said in an interview with Russian media on Feb. 22 that Ukrainian citizens in occupied Ukraine who attempt sabotage against Russia should be "exposed and punished, sent to Siberia ... for re-education in forced labor camps."
Ukraine's Southern Operational Command denied Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu's claim that the village of Krynky in Kherson Oblast had been captured by Russia on Feb. 20.
"Russian forces will likely have to conduct an operational pause before resuming significant offensive operations in the Avdiivka direction," analysts said.
Despite Russia's capture of Avdiivka, Russian forces have not yet demonstrated an ability to secure significant gains across large swaths of territory, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed in its report on Feb. 18.
The ISW notes that Russian forces secured air superiority during the Avdiivka offensive, while Western aid delays have hindered Ukraine’s defense.
