Russian independent media publish new estimate of Russia's losses in Ukraine
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For the first time this year, independent Russian media outlets Mediazona and Meduza on May 9 updated their overall estimate of Russia's military losses in Ukraine. According to their report, 352,000 Russian men between the ages of 18 and 59 have been killed since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022.
The joint report, published on Russia's Victory Day holiday, said the estimate was based on data from Russia's publicly accessible Probate Registry, which tracks inheritance cases, along with a verified database of Russian war dead compiled by the outlets, BBC News Russian, and a group of volunteers.
So far, the names of 217,808 Russian service members killed in the war have been confirmed.
The estimate includes only officially confirmed deaths of Russian citizens. For the first time, the calculation also incorporated soldiers declared dead or missing by court order in cases where bodies were not recovered or identified.
The outlets said about 90,000 of the estimated deaths fell into that category, while roughly 261,000 were classified as "regular" fatalities identified through probate and other official records. According to the report, court applications to declare service members missing or dead began rising sharply in mid-2024.
The publication coincided with Russia's annual Victory Day parade in Moscow, traditionally a large-scale military display commemorating the Soviet Union's defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II. This year's parade was notably scaled down and did not feature military equipment, an unusual omission for the annual event.
The updated estimate from the independent Russian outlets is lower than figures released by Ukraine's military. According to Ukraine's General Staff, as of May 9, Russia had lost about 1,340,270 troops since the beginning of the invasion on Feb. 24, 2022.
In addition to personnel losses, the Ukrainian military said Russia had lost 11,920 tanks, 24,541 armored combat vehicles, 95,252 vehicles and fuel tanks, 41,712 artillery systems, 1,780 multiple launch rocket systems, 1,371 air defense systems, 435 aircraft, 352 helicopters, 281,208 drones, 33 ships and boats, and two submarines.
Independent Western assessments have also concluded that Russian losses significantly exceed Ukrainian casualties. The Washington-based think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies said in a January 2026 report that Russian casualties were roughly double to 2.5 times greater than Ukraine's losses.
According to the CSIS report, Ukraine likely suffered between 500,000 and 600,000 casualties from February 2022 through December 2025, including an estimated 100,000 to 140,000 troops killed in action.
Russia has not publicly released comprehensive official casualty figures for the war in Ukraine.
