There is a real possibility that Russia could inflict "substantial" casualties by carrying out arson or sabotage operation against a NATO country, NATO Deputy Assistant Secretary General James Appathurai told Sky News in an interview published on Dec. 29.
"What really worries me is that one of these attacks, as I say, will break through in a big way," Appathurai said. Warnings about Russian hybrid attacks against allied countries have mounted since Moscow launched its full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022.
NATO pledged to step up security measures to counter hybrid attacks as the Finnish authorities recently seized the Eagle S tanker transporting Russian oil on suspicion it cut an undersea cable between Finland and Estonia.
"So there is a real prospect of one of these attacks causing substantial numbers of casualties or very substantial economic damage," the NATO official overseeing an updated allied strategy on countering hybrid attacks told Sky News.
Appathurai said that the current volume of attacks would have been "unacceptable" five years ago, presenting it as Russia's response to the Western support for Kyiv. The official stressed that NATO must be clearer about what kind of an attack would trigger a joint response.
NATO's Article 5 says that an attack against one ally represents an attack against the alliance as a whole and warrants a joint response. The application of this rule on Russian hybrid attacks has been hotly debated over the past few years.
"We can definitely count dozens. Up to 100 for sure. But then there's a lot of foiled plots," Appathurai said when talking about a surge in Russian kinetic hybrid attacks since 2022.
These operations have not been limited to cutting cables, as Russian intelligence services have been connected to flammable parcels smuggled onto cargo planes and sent out to European airports.
Olena Goncharova
