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ISW: Winter will not end the Ukrainian counteroffensive

by Abbey Fenbert September 24, 2023 7:32 AM 1 min read
Ukrainian soldiers on duty outside of Toretsk in Donetsk Oblast on Sept. 23, 2023. (Photo by Wolfgang Schwan/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
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The coming winter will not necessarily stop the advance of Ukrainian counteroffensive troops, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) wrote in its Sept. 23 report.

"[W]hile seasonal weather can slow ground movements and challenge logistics, it will not impose a definite end to Ukrainian counteroffensive operations," the ISW wrote.

In a Sept. 23 interview with CNN, General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi said that winter would not heavily disrupt the counteroffensive, as Ukrainian forces are advancing on foot rather than relying on vehicles.

Tarnavskyi commands Ukraine's front-line troops in Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk oblasts.

According to the ISW, weather will not be the decisive factor in the counteroffensive's success.

"The culmination of the Ukrainian counteroffensive will likely depend rather on the Russian and Ukrainian balance of forces as well as on Western aid to Ukraine," the ISW said.

The ISW also reported that Ukrainian troops continued to advance in western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, striking the front-line village of Novoprokopivka.

The ISW based its assessment on geolocated footage and reports from Russian sources claiming that the Russian military had resisted a Ukrainian ground attack near the village.

The reports suggest that "Ukrainian forces have likely cleared Russian positions between Robotyne and Novoprokopivka," the ISW said.

Novoprokopivka lies 1.5 kilometers south of Robotyne, which was liberated by Ukrainian troops on Aug. 28.

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