The Institute for the Study of War said in its latest assessment that open-sourced data supports Ukraine's military reports that Russia is loading trains with weapons, equipment, ammunition, and other unspecified materiel from Belarus to relocate to areas of engagement further south and east. The experts think such activity is "incompatible with setting conditions for a large-scale Russian or Belarusian ground attack" against Ukraine from Belarus.
The institute also suggests that Belarusian equipment and supply movements to Crimea and Rostov Oblast indicate that Russian forces are "less confident about the security of Russian ground lines of communication running through northern and western Luhansk Oblast given the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive there."
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