Russia's war in Ukraine is on the verge of escalating dramatically, with multiple reports, intelligence assessments, and a video suggesting North Korean troops could soon be fighting alongside Kremlin forces.
While Pyongyang has long supplied Moscow with weaponry, the deployment of boots on the ground would mark a significant development that has raised alarm bells in capitals around the world.
In the latest development on Oct. 21, South Korea summoned the Russian ambassador in Seoul, Georgy Zinoviev, and called for the "immediate withdrawal of North Korean troops and (to) stop relevant cooperation" with Pyongyang.
While not confirming the deployment, Washington has said it is "concerned" about the reports. On Oct. 18, U.S. Select Committee on Intelligence Chairman Michael R. Turner appealed to President Joe Biden to respond immediately.
Moscow has neither confirmed nor denied reports.
"We see a lot of contradictory information," Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told the Russian media, the state-controlled news agency Interfax reported.
"The South Koreans say one thing, and then the Pentagon says that they have no confirmation, so there is a lot of contradictory information. So that's probably how it should be approached."
Despite Peskov's vague statements, there is plenty of evidence to suggest North Korean troops are already in Russia training to partake in the Kremlin's war in Ukraine in some capacity.
A Western official told the Kyiv Independent on Oct. 15 that 10,000 had already been sent. Lt. General Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s HUR military intelligence service, put the number at 11,000 and said they'd be "ready to fight" by Nov. 1. A video purportedly showing them at a military training camp inside Russia surfaced online.
The Kyiv Independent asked five serving Ukrainian soldiers — some of whom asked to be identified by first name only for security reasons — what they thought about the North Korean troops potentially joining the Russian army.
Myroslav Hai, an officer in Ukraine’s army
"We're not worried too much about North Korean soldiers because for us, it's a sign that Russia has problems.
"The people who agree to fight in this war for Russia do it for money, Russia has many problems with mobilization.
"Many people who decide to take part in this war die. And other people from Russia don't want to go to this war just for money; it's a very important sign.
"They will be very low-quality troops; they won't have experience of fighting in this war, so strategically it won't make a profound difference on the front line.
"If North Korea sends many more troops, again, it's a problem for them. They will have language problems. Ukraine also has experience with (foreign legion) soldiers, so we understand these difficulties.
"We must work with South Korea on this problem. We must create a special government program for soldiers to convince them to stop fighting and make a proposal that they can return to Korea, not to North Korea, but to South Korea.
"Because many people from North Korea try to run away from the regime to South Korea. This would be a really good program for them."
Katie Marie Davies
Denys, a drone operator with the 79th Air Assault Brigade
"We are already at war with one of the strongest countries. There is nothing to worry about.
"They shouldn't come here; only death awaits them here. Let them go AWOL (absent without official leave) straight away. This is not their war and not their country."
Vadym, a Ukrainian soldier fighting in Zaporizhzhia Oblast
"It all depends on how many of them there will be. I've heard that some have already been caught in Kursk Oblast. I don't think their quality is very high. North Korea is a country stuck somewhere in the 1950s-60s.
"Of course, this is bad because the more of them there are, the worse it is. (For us, it means) more work.
"We should influence them like everyone else through psychological operations, scattering leaflets. It's not a cure-all, but it's something even if one percent runs over to us and surrenders.
"On a large scale, I don't think they'll have much impact on anything."
Petro Kuzyk, a battalion commander at the National Guard
"We will kill everyone who comes to our land as an occupier!"
Mykyta, a medic with the 67th Separate Mechanized Brigade
"Technically, Russia is fighting at the expense of its allies: Chinese drones, Iranian missiles and Shahed (drones), Chinese armored cars, North Korean missiles, ammunition… And now soldiers.
"This speaks to the ridiculous problem that the 'second most powerful army in the world' cannot defeat Ukraine, which is weak on its own and which the West is afraid to help appropriately, so it is sitting on scraps.
"But this also speaks to another terrible problem. The 'second most powerful army in the world' is not just pulling what resources it can from its allies, no. It is beginning to fight in a coalition format.
Chris York
"The West is providing little help and reacts sluggishly to the growing scale of the mess. Recent statistics showed that the average age of contract soldiers in the Russian army has reached 50 years. It was also said somewhere that the wounded were sent into battle. I believe the former and would like to believe the latter, but there is no evidence.
"Sign-up bonuses for joining the Russian army have increased dramatically over this year. This suggests they need to motivate people to join the army to avoid a general mobilization.
“Many 'experts' bets are in jeopardy because many said Russia would soon run out of steam. But they have found another million-dollar secret place to draw meat from. This is scary.
"With another 10,000 more troops, Russia can at least not slow down much, and at most can receive a third of the personnel it needs every month. This is tangible."
Additional reporting by Asami Terajima and Daria Shulzhenko.
Martin Fornusek
Introducing official
merch from the Kyiv Independent
