Societal discontent rises in Russia after Ukraine's Kursk incursion, ISW says

Societal discontent has risen in Russia since the start of Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast, and is being acknowledged in Kremlin-public polling, the Institute for the Study of War reported on Aug. 31.

According to polls cited by the ISW, "outrage or dissatisfaction" with Russian authorities has risen from 18% of respondents on July 12, to 28% on Aug. 25, the highest levels seen since the hugely unpopular mobilization in November of 2022.

Another recorded a drop in Russian President Vladimir Putin's approval rating of 3.5% to 73.6%, a record drop since the start of the full-scale invasion.

The ISW caveats the polling by saying they do not suggest "particularly pronounced discontent," and  cautions against the reliability of Kremlin-conducted surveys.

"The polls do suggest, however, that the Kremlin assesses that it must recognize that societal discontent has risen since the start of Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast," it says.

"The Kremlin appears to have launched an intricate messaging campaign aimed at justifying to its domestic audience why Russia is prioritizing the maintenance of offensive operations in eastern Ukraine over immediately expelling Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast, and limited acknowledgments of discontent may be a part of this campaign."

As Kyiv's incursion into Kursk Oblast entered its fourth week, Ukraine is in control of 1,294 square kilometers (around 500 square miles) and 100 settlements, including the town of Sudzha, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Aug. 27.

Russia faces a "difficult fight" to retake territory lost in Ukraine's Kursk incursion, Deputy CIA Director David Cohen said on Aug. 28.

"We can be certain that (Russian President Vladimir) Putin will mount a counteroffensive to try to reclaim that territory," he told a national security industry conference in Maryland in comments reported by Reuters.

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