Skip to content
Edit post

Opinion: Can national reconciliation defeat populism?

October 6, 2023 5:17 PM 6 min read
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban attends a joint press conference with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic in Belgrade, Serbia, on Sept. 29, 2023. (Photo by Milos Miskov/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)
This audio is created with AI assistance

Support independent journalism in Ukraine. Join us in this fight.

Become a member Support us just once

For the U.S., Slovakia's general election may produce another unreliable allied government. But instead of turning a blind eye to such allies, as U.S. President Joe Biden has been doing with Poland, or confronting them with an uncompromising stance, the U.S. should spearhead efforts to help mend flawed democracies.

VIENNA/WARSAW – Pro-Russian populist Robert Fico’s strong showing in Slovakia’s election could lead to another fracture in the Western-led coalition to counter Vladimir Putin’s imperialism. Already, cracks have been emerging in the erstwhile close alliance between Ukraine and Poland in the run-up to the Polish elections on October 15. With Hungary ruled by Viktor Orban, a reliable Putin ally, U.S. President Joe Biden may soon need to contend not only with Donald Trump’s camp of pro-Russian Republicans, but also with the governments of three of Ukraine’s four NATO neighbors going rogue in favor of the Kremlin.

Authoritarian populists make for unreliable allies. But instead of turning a blind eye to populist shenanigans, as the Biden administration has been doing with Poland, or risking important relationships by assuming an uncompromising stance, the U.S. should spearhead efforts to help mend flawed democracies in allied countries through processes of national reconciliation and creative power sharing.

Opinion: Slovak election results threaten Europe’s united front
Slovakia’s early parliamentary elections on Sept. 30 resulted in a clear victory for pro-Kremlin politician Robert Fico and his party, SMER. While we don’t know which parties will form the government, scenarios in which Fico is not the strongest party leader of the ruling coalition are not really

While Hungary’s position toward Ukraine has been consistently hostile, Slovakia’s support has, until now, been substantial, with the country donating its entire fleet of retired Soviet-era fighter jets, as well as air defense systems, to its eastern neighbor. Should Fico form the next government, Slovak policy may resemble the recent cascade of anti-Ukrainian moves from Poland’s populist government, which have included embargoing Ukraine’s grain and ending donations of Polish military equipment.

These reversals may seem shocking, but they are not surprising. Authoritarian nationalist movements such as Poland’s ruling Law and Justice (PiS) are known to subordinate even the most solemn international obligations to their immediate political objectives. The exhausting saga of Turkish and Hungarian vetoes of the Finnish and Swedish NATO bids is a case in point.

The conventional wisdom in the United States is that the proper response is to focus on the bigger picture. Poland, after all, has emerged as a pivotal node in the effort to support Ukraine and strengthen NATO’s deterrence capabilities. Poland accepted millions of Ukrainian refugees and donated much of its Soviet-era weaponry while announcing massive increases in military spending, reaching as much as 5% of the country’s GDP – more than double NATO’s target. Polish airports and ports are critical to the logistics of supporting Ukraine’s resistance.

But that conventional view makes sense only against the admittedly unattractive alternative of severing or significantly downgrading ties with illiberal allied governments. In other words, giving friendly authoritarians a blank check seems necessary if open confrontation with them is the only other option. As Franklin Roosevelt famously said of Dominican dictator Rafael Trujillo: “He may be a bastard, but he’s our bastard.”

President Volodymyr Zelensky (R) shakes hands with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban (L) next to Spain's acting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez (C) before the start of a plenary session of the European Political Community summit at the Palacio de Congreso in Granada, Spain, on Oct. 5, 2023. (LUDOVIC MARIN/AFP via Getty Images)

Fortunately, there is another way. Most populist regimes reflect deep political polarization of their country’s society. It is the rift between conservative and progressive Turks, Hindu and minority Indians, ethnonationalist and internationalist Hungarians, or pro-Western and pan-Slavic Slovaks that leads voters to conclude that the only way to protect their interests is to impose their will through undemocratic means.

Poland is emblematic of this dynamic. Eight years into its populist government, voters are deeply divided, with right-wing and progressive parties splitting the electorate almost evenly, according to most opinion polls. As in the U.S., this also reflects a geographical asymmetry. The right’s bastion is Poland’s deeply Catholic, conservative Southeast, while opposition voters are concentrated in the more pro-Western, progressive Northwest.

In fact, PiS’s recent relative weakness in its strongholds reflects the few instances when, during its time in power, it chose not to follow cynical political calculations. As a result, PiS is now being outflanked from the right by the Confederation party, which lambastes the government for its support of Ukraine. In a classic cycle of political polarization, this electoral threat makes PiS respond by adopting even more extreme policies, including the current spat with Ukraine’s government.

But this logic of polarization can be reversed, by responding to the roots, not just the symptoms, of our democratic crisis. Along with a group of more than a hundred scholars and activists representing political views from left to the conservative right, we have proposed – in a book that became a non-fiction bestseller in Poland – a comprehensive constitutional settlement that responds to Poland’s democratic malaise. Rather than simply defeating the right, our proposal envisions a political settlement based on the principles of power sharing and far-reaching decentralization.

Peter Tkacenko: Slovakia after election – If not friend, certainly not enemy of Ukraine
Robert Fico’s Direction – Social Democracy (Smer) has secured victory in the latest Slovakelections with 23% of the vote. Ex-Prime Minister Fico, who expressed dissatisfaction with his country’s support ofneighboring Ukraine, has an open road to a third stint as the country’s prime minister. Yet,…

It is in America’s interest to support this and other efforts to foster political settlements and stability in the countries that are now its critical allies, and the Biden administration has powerful tools to help make it happen. For example, it is an open secret that Polish President Andrzej Duda, a PiS ally, is eyeing an international leadership role after the end of his second term in 2025. Biden could condition support for Duda’s aspirations on credible work toward national reconciliation with the country’s progressive forces.

Just one success in a U.S.-sponsored effort to foster political coexistence could inspire similar projects among other U.S. allies with troubled democracies. Eventually, Americans may benefit from such successes, too. After all, the passivity of U.S. diplomats in resolving dangerous political polarization within allied countries mirrors the Biden administration’s failure to engage conservatives at home in the wake of Trump’s 2020 electoral defeat.

Our work in Poland shows that national reconciliation involves tough compromises on issues such as education, multiculturalism, or the role of religion in public life. The U.S. would be wise to support and study such political settlements in allied countries, where the opportunity cost is small, given the baseline scenario of precipitous democratic decline. If these initiatives bring positive results abroad, they may one day succeed at home.

Editor’s Note: Copyright, Project Syndicate. The following article was published by Project Syndicate on Oct. 2, 2023, and has been republished by the Kyiv Independent with permission. The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent.

Support independent journalism in Ukraine. Join us in this fight.
Freedom can be costly. Both Ukraine and its journalists are paying a high price for their independence. Support independent journalism in its darkest hour. Support us for as little as $1, and it only takes a minute.
visa masterCard americanExpress

Editors' Picks

Enter your email to subscribe
Please, enter correct email address
Subscribe
* indicates required
* indicates required
Subscribe
* indicates required
* indicates required
Subscribe
* indicates required

Subscribe

* indicates required
Subscribe
* indicates required

Subscribe

* indicates required
Subscribe
* indicates required

Subscribe

* indicates required
Successfuly subscribed
Thank you for signing up for this newsletter. We’ve sent you a confirmation email.