OPEC+ will boost oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and reinforcing a major strategic shift that has driven crude prices to a four-year low.
Key producers, including Saudi Arabia, agreed to the supply hike during a virtual meeting on May 31, following similarly sized increases set for May and June, delegates familiar with the talks told Bloomberg.
The move continues to diverge from OPEC+’s longstanding approach of curbing output to maintain high oil prices. Russia, a major partner in the alliance, reportedly proposed pausing the increases but was overruled. Delegates asked not to be named due to the private nature of the negotiations.
Oil briefly dropped below $60 per barrel in April after OPEC+ announced the output increases, despite weak global demand and the ongoing impact of President Donald Trump’s trade war. Prices have since rebounded slightly, with Brent crude trading around $64 in London.
Analysts and officials have pointed to a range of motives behind Saudi Arabia’s policy change. Some suggest Riyadh is trying to placate Trump, others argue the kingdom is seeking to regain market share lost to U.S. shale producers and other competitors. Additional theories include punishing members such as Kazakhstan and Iraq for exceeding their output quotas, or simply responding to unexpectedly strong demand.
The shift comes at a financial cost. While lower crude prices benefit consumers and help central banks combat inflation, they threaten the revenues of oil-exporting nations.
Anna Fratsyvir
(Updated: )
