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U.S. negotiators will meet separately with Ukrainian and Russian delegates in Riyadh on March 24, but although contours of a potential partial ceasefire proposal are beginning to form, Kyiv remains skeptical of Moscow's intentions.
The upcoming discussions are meant to flesh out technical details on what this ceasefire, either limited to strikes against energy facilities or a more comprehensive plan involving a halt on all air and sea warfare, should look like.
U.S. President Donald Trump has strived to broker a swift peace deal in Ukraine, pressuring Kyiv to the negotiating table by temporarily halting military and intelligence aid while doing little to pressure Moscow apart from verbal threats of sanctions.
So far, Trump's efforts have only secured a promise from Russia for the 30-day pause on energy strikes—an idea backed also by Kyiv.
The Kremlin's promise had been broken immediately, with Russian drones attacking cities and villages all over Ukraine.
As a result, Ukrainian officials remain skeptical about the talks, hinting that they would result in a lot of statements, yet little of substance.
"I personally don't have high expectations because, in my opinion, we can change (Russian President Vladimir) Putin's behavior not as much through negotiations as through exerting more pressure on Russia," Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, told the Kyiv Independent.
"Putin will be using negotiations only for propaganda. He wants to look equal to the U.S. and not politically isolated. He is not interested in a stable ceasefire."
'Shuttle Diplomacy'
As Russia and Ukraine have not held direct high-level talks since early 2022, the U.S. will instead hold separate — and possibly parallel — talks with both parties in the Saudi capital early next week.
Until now, the Trump team has only held bilateral talks with each side separately, including meetings with Russia in Riyadh on Feb. 18 and Istanbul on Feb. 27, and with Ukraine in Jeddah on March 11.
"They're gonna be proximity discussions, meaning one group's gonna be in this room, one group in this room, and they'll sit and talk, go back and forth, sort of like shuttle diplomacy," Keith Kellog, Trump's special envoy for Ukraine, said on ABC News.
Ukraine's delegation will be led by Defense Minister Rustem Umerov and Pavlo Palisa, the deputy head of the President's Office, an undisclosed Ukrainian source told Sky News. Both of these two officials were present at the U.S. talks in Jeddah.
According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, Kyiv is sending "technical teams" to flash out specifics of a potential partial ceasefire. Ukraine also made it clear that no Ukraine-Russia communications would be held in Riyadh.
In turn, Russia is dispatching Grigory Karasin, chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, and Sergei Beseda, an advisor to Federal Security Service (FSB) director Alexander Bortnikov.
The choice of Beseda stands out. The 70-year-old colonel general previously led the 5th FSB Service, a department responsible for gathering intelligence on Ukraine before the full-scale war began.
Beseda reportedly fell out of favor and was even placed under house arrest early in 2022 after the Kremlin realized that the 5th Service was providing faulty intelligence.
The U.S. has yet to reveal the composition of its team, though U.S. special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz have so far headed diplomatic efforts on Russia and Ukraine.
Oleg Sukhov
Technical discussions, shape of a ceasefire
The proposed 30-day mutual pause on strikes against energy facilities and possibly other civilian infrastructure is to be the focus of next week's talks.
"We agreed our technical teams would meet in Riyadh in the coming days to focus on implementing and expanding the partial ceasefire President Trump secured from Russia," Waltz said.
The agreement followed a phone call between Trump and Putin on March 18, when the Russian president rejected the U.S.-proposed full ceasefire unless it included conditions rendering Kyiv more vulnerable to further attacks.
Zelensky, after his phone call with Trump, backed the energy truce but pointed out that Russia's aerial strikes on Ukraine's infrastructure have continued unabated despite Putin's claim of ordering the pause. Moscow has also accused Ukraine of striking its energy facilities in Krasnodar Krai and near Sudzha, the latter of which Kyiv denied.
The Ukrainian president promised to draft a list of energy and other facilities that should be protected under the proposed ceasefire. "And if the Russians don't hit our facilities, we won't hit their facilities," he added.
"This is not a political meeting but a technical one. A meeting to determine parameters for various ceasefire proposals that are on the table," Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi said at a press briefing.
"Technical level and technical discussions. There will be a military component," he added.
Ukraine's campaign of long-range strikes against Russian oil and gas facilities, key sources of revenue for Moscow's war chest, has often been hailed as one of its main wartime achievements.
In turn, Russia has destroyed a large part of Ukraine's energy grid in massive waves of drone and missile attacks throughout the war — though the country was able to pass the winter without major blackouts.
The strikes on energy facilities may not be the only issue on the table.
Maria Mezentseva, a lawmaker from Zelensky's party and the chairperson of the PACE delegation, expects discussions about a "comprehensive" ceasefire regime, as Kyiv and Washington have already agreed on this.
"It is also important to press on humanitarian issues: the release of all military and civilian prisoners, the return of illegally deported children," she told the Kyiv Independent.
After the phone call between Trump and Putin, Ukraine and Russia carried out a 175-for-175 prisoner exchange on March 19, in addition to 22 Ukrainian soldiers brought back home in a separate deal.
Moscow further revealed that the talks will concern the safety of Black Sea shipping, an issue reportedly touched upon in the phone call between Trump and Putin.
The Turkey and U.N.-mediated Black Sea Grain Initiative, which ensured safe passage for merchant ships, broke down after Russia unilaterally withdrew from the treaty in 2023. However, this development seems to have only a limited effect on Ukraine's ability to ship out its grain and other products after Kyiv forced the reopening of a new Black Sea corridor by force.
There are a number of other topics and points of interest that were mentioned by the Trump administration.
The U.S. signaled interest in taking control of Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, Europe's largest nuclear power station that is currently under Russian occupation. Debates about a mineral deal, on hold since the public spat between Zelensky and Trump in the White House on Feb. 28, might also reemerge.
But Ukraine is tempering expectations as to whether the meeting can bring any sort of result.
Karol Luczka
Path toward peace unclear
"I don't expect any breakthroughs in following negotiations in Saudi Arabia," said Volodymyr Ariev, Ukrainian lawmaker from the opposition European Solidarity party who served as the vice president at PACE in 2018.
Even if progress is made on the ceasefire issue, a comprehensive peace treaty seems miles away.
There are no indications that Putin is ready to abandon his maximalist goals — Kyiv's military neutered, NATO membership off the table, and a halt on any foreign support for Ukraine.
The Kremlin also continues to demand Ukraine to withdraw from the partially occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts and seeks to extract official recognition of its conquests.
U.S. officials taking part in the negotiations with Russia seem to agree with Putin's demands.
"I think the largest issue in that conflict are these so-called four regions, Donbas, Crimea ... and there's two others," Witkoff said, referring to partly Russian-occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia oblasts, and Crimea, fully occupied by Russia since 2014.
"They are Russian-speaking, and there have been referendums where the overwhelming majority of the people have indicated that they want to be under Russian rule," Witkoff added, omitting the circumstances surrounding Russia's sham referendums at gunpoint in occupied Ukraine.
The Trump administration has signaled that it expects some territorial concessions on Ukraine's part, calling a return to its pre-2014 borders unrealistic.
Ukraine earlier said that giving up territory controlled by Kyiv is a line that it would not cross. Zelensky has also made clear that Ukraine would never recognize Russian occupation but acknowledged that discussions about territory would be "difficult."
"I hope that the Ukrainian delegation will maintain the position not to cross red lines on territorial integrity matters, (and) to maintain its rights for entering military unions to defend itself," Ariev said.
Kyiv also rejected any limitations on the size of its military and ban on joining international alliances, seeing them as key security guarantees that would prevent Russia from violating agreements in the future.
"All our experience of dealing with Putin testifies that Putin will never keep his word. He is a pathological liar and provocateur," Merezhko said.
"To use Trump's metaphor of playing cards, the principle should be not to start at all playing cards with a professional cheater and crook… You cannot win against a crook because he is cheating and violating the rules of the game while you are trying to follow the rules."
Natalia Yermak
