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American officials interviewed by the New York Times believe that the upcoming few weeks, while the weather holds, could allow Ukraine’s military to press forward in Donbas and potentially retake Kherson.
The officials, most of whom spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive or classified assessments of the war, warn that there is "little chance of a widespread collapse in Russian forces" that would allow Ukraine to take another huge swath of territory, similar to what it claimed in September during the Kharkiv counteroffensive.
However, some individual Russian units could break in the face of sustained Ukrainian pressure.