Belarusian opposition warns Ukraine of plans for Minsk to enter war

Belarus' exiled opposition has handed President Volodymyr Zelensky a list of warning signs that Minsk soon plans to enter Russia's war against Ukraine.

The document, created by the United Transition Cabinet of Belarus and handed to Ukrainian foreign minister Andrii Sybiha on June 22, outlines clear policy areas pointing to Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko's domestic shift towards a wartime posture.

The points that the exiled cabinet drew attention to included constitutional changes cancelling Belarus' status as a neutral, non-nuclear state, a two-fold increase in the recruiting of new contract soldiers, a five-fold increase in military spending in the state budget, and the militarization of society, including children.

"Belarus has ceased to be a neutral and non-nuclear country," the report says.

In notes that earlier, in 2024, Belarus adopted new military doctrine officially allows pre-emptive strikes justified by 'imminent threat.'"

On June 18, President Zelensky gave a public ultimatum to Lukashenko, giving his Belarusian counterpart a week to remove signal repeator equipment on Belarusian territory used to help guide Russian drone strikes.

Russia's Shahed-type long-range strike drones are known to use mesh radio stations to navigate, communicating both with each other and ground stations on their way to Ukrainian cities.

During attacks on Kyiv and northern Ukraine, the drones are often tracked hugging the border with Belarus before honing in on their targets.

Russian president Vladimir Putin will discuss Zelensky's ultimatum with Lukashenko in soon-to-be-held dialogue, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on June 22, as reported by Russian state news agency TASS.

Since the onset of the full-scale war, when Russian forces used Belarusian territory to stage and carry out its offensive on Kyiv and northern Ukraine, fears that Minsk would send its own troops in to join the

Over 2026, Kyiv has drawn attention to signals that the use of Belarusian territory, infrastructure, and perhaps even armed forces in Russia's war could escalate.

To properly mount a repeat offensive on northern Ukraine from Belarusian territory, a potential Russian invasion force will need to number at least 70,000, said Oleksandr Pivnenko, commander of Ukraine's National Guard on June 22.

Meanwhile though, Ukraine has made decisive steps toward seizing the initiative with drone strikes at operational and strategic depth, Kyiv has stepped up efforts to deter Belarus from getting pulled into the war.

On May 26, Unmanned Systems Forces commander Robert "Magyar" Brovdi claimed that the first 500 targets to be struck by Ukraine inside Belarus were "already pencilled down" if Minsk decided to enter the war.