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82% of Poles reject Trump's claim Russian drone incursion was accidental, poll shows

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82% of Poles reject Trump's claim Russian drone incursion was accidental, poll shows
Supporters hold a banner featuring Polish President Karol Nawrocki and U.S. President Donald Trump on May 29, 2025, in Katowice, Poland. (Omar Marques/Getty Images)

The vast majority of Poles dismissed U.S. President Donald Trump's suggestion that Russia's recent drone incursion may have been accidental, according to an IBRiS poll for Polish radio station Radio ZET published on Sept. 17.

Despite widespread reporting suggesting the Sept. 10 drone incursion was deliberate, Trump refused to acknowledge Russia's responsibility.

Trump told reporters on Sept. 11 that the incident "could have been a mistake," as tensions surged in Warsaw after 21 Russian drones violated Polish airspace.

According to the poll, 81.7% of respondents rejected the possibility of an accident, while only 10.6% agreed with Trump's interpretation. The remaining 7.7% were unable to answer the question.

Belief in the "accidental" explanation was highest among supporters of the far-right Confederation party (18%), followed by backers of the ruling Civic Coalition (17%).

Supporters of the opposition Law and Justice party, which backed Trump-endorsed President Karol Nawrocki during the election, were the most skeptical, with just 4% considering the drone incursion unintentional.

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The results come amid strong pushback from Polish officials, who have firmly rejected Trump's characterization of the incursion.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski accused Russia of deliberately violating Poland's airspace.

Echoing his chief diplomat, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk commented, "We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn't. And we know it."

While Russian drones and missiles have repeatedly crossed into NATO territory during strikes on Ukraine, Sept. 10 was the first confirmed instance of Polish defenses shooting them down.

German media outlets Spiegel and Welt reported on Sept. 11 that the Russian drones appeared to target Rzeszow Airport, a key logistics hub for Western military aid to Ukraine.

Moscow denied any involvement, with the Russian Defense Ministry saying it had "not planned to hit" targets in Poland, while Russia's charge d'affaires in Warsaw dismissed the allegations.

The IBRiS survey was conducted on Sept. 13-14 via telephone interviews with 1,067 respondents.

How Russia’s drone incursion into Poland skirted the line of NATO’s escalation policy
Russia and NATO are currently in the most open confrontation since the collapse of the Soviet Union ended the Cold War — but only one side seems to be acknowledging it. The incursion of 21 Russian drones into Polish airspace on Sept. 9 — unprecedented in the history of Moscow’s relations with NATO — has brought the prospects of a direct military exchange between the two adversaries into the forefront. “Even though NATO is not at war, Russian aggression strikes beyond Ukraine,” Polish Foreign M
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Tim Zadorozhnyy

News Editor

Tim Zadorozhnyy is a news editor at The Kyiv Independent. Based in Warsaw, he is pursuing studies in International Relations, focusing on European Studies. Tim began his career at a local television channel in Odesa. After moving to Warsaw, he joined the Belarusian opposition media outlet NEXTA, starting as a news anchor and later advancing to the position of managing editor.

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