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82% of Poles reject Trump's claim Russian drone incursion was accidental, poll shows

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82% of Poles reject Trump's claim Russian drone incursion was accidental, poll shows
Supporters hold a banner featuring Polish President Karol Nawrocki and U.S. President Donald Trump on May 29, 2025, in Katowice, Poland. (Omar Marques/Getty Images)

The vast majority of Poles dismissed U.S. President Donald Trump's suggestion that Russia's recent drone incursion may have been accidental, according to an IBRiS poll for Polish radio station Radio ZET published on Sept. 17.

Despite widespread reporting suggesting the Sept. 10 drone incursion was deliberate, Trump refused to acknowledge Russia's responsibility.

Trump told reporters on Sept. 11 that the incident "could have been a mistake," as tensions surged in Warsaw after 21 Russian drones violated Polish airspace.

According to the poll, 81.7% of respondents rejected the possibility of an accident, while only 10.6% agreed with Trump's interpretation. The remaining 7.7% were unable to answer the question.

Belief in the "accidental" explanation was highest among supporters of the far-right Confederation party (18%), followed by backers of the ruling Civic Coalition (17%).

Supporters of the opposition Law and Justice party, which backed Trump-endorsed President Karol Nawrocki during the election, were the most skeptical, with just 4% considering the drone incursion unintentional.

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The results come amid strong pushback from Polish officials, who have firmly rejected Trump's characterization of the incursion.

Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski accused Russia of deliberately violating Poland's airspace.

Echoing his chief diplomat, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk commented, "We would also wish that the drone attack on Poland was a mistake. But it wasn't. And we know it."

While Russian drones and missiles have repeatedly crossed into NATO territory during strikes on Ukraine, Sept. 10 was the first confirmed instance of Polish defenses shooting them down.

German media outlets Spiegel and Welt reported on Sept. 11 that the Russian drones appeared to target Rzeszow Airport, a key logistics hub for Western military aid to Ukraine.

Moscow denied any involvement, with the Russian Defense Ministry saying it had "not planned to hit" targets in Poland, while Russia's charge d'affaires in Warsaw dismissed the allegations.

The IBRiS survey was conducted on Sept. 13-14 via telephone interviews with 1,067 respondents.

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Tim Zadorozhnyy

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Tim Zadorozhnyy is the reporter for the Kyiv Independent, specializing in foreign policy, U.S.-Ukraine relations, and political developments across Europe and Russia. Based in Warsaw, he is pursuing studies in International Relations and the European Studies program at Lazarski University, offered in partnership with Coventry University. Tim began his career at a local television channel in Odesa in 2022. After relocating to Warsaw, he spent a year and a half with the Belarusian independent media outlet NEXTA, initially as a news anchor and later as managing editor. Tim is fluent in English, Ukrainian, and Russian.

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