Ukrainians grow skeptical about swift end to war, determined to fight on, poll shows
Some 43% of Ukrainians do not believe that the war with Russia will end in 2026, up 14% from December, according to a poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) published on Feb. 2.
The survey, conducted between Jan. 23 and 29, also showed that 65% of respondents are determined to endure the war for "as long as necessary," compared with 62% in December and 54% in March 2025.
The news comes as U.S. President Donald Trump's year-long push to broker peace in Ukraine has failed to produce a peace deal, as Kyiv and Moscow remain far apart on the thorny subject of territory.
Only about 20% respondents said they expect a peace deal by mid-2026, while 18% say the war could end in the second half of the year, underscoring growing skepticism about the progress of the peace talks.
The next round of negotiations among Ukrainian, Russian, and U.S. officials is set to take place in Abu Dhabi on Feb. 4-5, with the discussions expected to focus on a potential energy ceasefire and the fate of the Donbas region.
Moscow has demanded that Ukraine fully withdraw from Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, a condition Kyiv has rejected.
Ukraine retains several footholds in Luhansk Oblast and about a quarter of Donetsk Oblast, including a strategically important "fortress belt" centered on the key towns of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
According to the KIIS poll, 52% respondents categorically rejected a peace deal that would allow Russia to take the entire Donbas in exchange for security guarantees for Ukraine, while 40% were ready to accept this condition.
These figures remain largely unchanged since an earlier poll in the first half of January.
About 88% Ukrainians also view Russia's wave of attacks against energy infrastructure as an attempt to deprive the population of heat and light to force them to surrender.
Roughly 90% believe that Ukraine should strike back against Russian territory, of whom 80% say such attacks could include non-military targets like power plants or oil infrastructure.
Moscow's forces have escalated their strikes against Ukraine's power grid over the past months, causing mass blackouts amid freezing temperatures and ongoing peace talks.
