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Why Ukraine needs Russia's terminal defeat – not just deterrence

Five years into the full-scale conflict, it has become clear that the model of strategic deterrence – the "steel porcupine" that Ursula von der Leyen often invokes when speaking about Ukraine –  offers no guarantee of resilience and long-term peace. The "steel porcupine" model assumes that, given Russia's significant resource advantage, Ukraine's only realistic strategy is to build a defense so strong that continued aggression becomes prohibitively costly for Russia. However, as of 2026, this

Ukrainian servicemen firing toward Russian positions near Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, on March 21, 2023.

About Crimea

Russia invaded Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula in February 2014 amid the deadliest days of the EuroMaidan Revolution. Around 30,000 Russian troops crossed into Crimea, taking hold of the peninsula by early March 2014. Russia has continued to occupy Crimea ever since. Crimea covers an area of around 27,000 square kilometers (10,400 square miles), roughly the same size as the U.S. state of Massachusetts.

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