Russia's economy is experiencing a sharp slowdown in growth, according to a report released by the governmental statistics agency Rosstat on May 16.
Gross domestic product (GDP) only grew by 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025 – a notable decline from 4.5% growth in the previous quarter and 5.4% in the same period last year, the Moscow Times reported, citing Rosstat data.
The latest data from Rosstat came in below expectations: the Russian Economic Development Ministry estimated GDP growth at 1.7% and Bloomberg analysts predicted 1.8% growth.
According to Egor Susin, an executive from Gazprombank (the third largest bank in Russia, currently under sanctions), Rosstat's data show a "sharp slowdown in the economy."
Compared to last quarter, the economy has already contracted 0.4% – the first such decline since 2022, according to Raiffeisenbank.
Other analysts point to Central Bank policies, sanctions, supply difficulties, and high inflation as reasons for the economy's decline.
Moreover, "the situation is complicated by low oil prices," Raiffeisenbank analysts note, as oil and gas revenues fell 10% from January to April.
A recent report from the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) also revealed that, despite narratives from the Kremlin, Russia’s economy is under increasing strain from its war in Ukraine and Western sanctions.
As Moscow and Kyiv discuss potential peace deals, the Russian economy may face another shock if military spending is reduced. Conversely – if peace talks fail – Europe and the United States may impose additional sanctions on Russia, putting further strain on its economy.
Tim Zadorozhnyy
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