Germany's far-right, pro-Russia party on brink of winning majority in key regional election

Editor's Note: This is a developing story and is being updated.

Germany's far-right nationalist party, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), holds a commanding lead in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt's parliamentary election on Sept. 6, with current forecasts showing the pro-Russian faction on the brink of a political majority in the region.

Such a victory for the  AfD in Saxony-Anhalt would represent the first far-right state government in Germany since World War II. It could also create serious problems for Ukraine.

The latest projections show AfD leading in the region with around 44.2% of the vote, a result that could earn the party an absolute majority in the state's 83-seat parliament. It would also make local AfD leader, Ulrich Siegmund, the minister president (regional head) of Saxony-Anhalt.

While official results are not yet in and the final tally remains unclear, AfD is clearly poised to win a plurality of votes, giving the party the right to form a regional government and granting Siegmund a seat in the Bundesrat, the upper house of Germany's parliament.

Siegmund's election marks the first time the AfD has secured representation in the Bundesrat, opening up an opportunity to delay legislation and promote anti-Ukrainian policies on a national platform.

The AfD leader has pledged to cut support for Ukrainian refugees and revitalize educational ties with Russia. In a region with 39,000 Ukrainians — including 31,000 refugees — Siegmund has called to slash funding and services, strip migrants of refugee status, and drive them out of Germany.

AfD control over the eastern state has also sparked fears of disrupted supply routes to Ukraine. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz is reportedly drawing up alternative eastward routes for military equipment — and even NATO troops in the event of a Russian attack, according to the Telegraph.

The AfD's lead in Saxony-Anhalt will also test other local parties' stated resolve not to cooperate with the far right.

The AfD is largely locked out of coalition talks thanks to the so-called "firewall," an agreement by Germany's other parties not to work with the far right — an approach rooted in the country's experience with Nazism.

A supermajority would remove that hurdle altogether. Even without an absolute majority, the AfD will be able to put the firewall to the test by attempting to persuade members of the Russian-sympathetic far left (BSW) or right-leaning conservatives (CDU) to break ranks and work with them.

While Saxony-Anhalt only represents 1.7 million voters (from a population of 2.1 million) in a country of 82 million people, the AfD's ambitions extend far beyond the region. The party — classified by the German security service as "confirmed far-right extremist" — ultimately aims to unseat Merz and reshape German politics.

The nationalist party is also eyeing electoral gains in the coming weeks, hoping for a win in the northeastern state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and a second-place result in Berlin on Sept. 20.

Even if the AfD fails to achieve its goals in those states, its success in Saxony-Anhalt points to the growing normalization of right-wing nationalism — and pro-Russian sympathies — in Germany.

Berlin is arguably Ukraine's most important ally in Europe, providing the largest portion of military aid and hosting about 1.3 million Ukrainian refugees, the largest number in the EU.

Opinion polls show Germans tilting toward reducing some financial benefits for Ukrainians, and even the current government is toughening its approach toward draft-age Ukrainian men within its borders.