Czechia's populist Ano party wins parliamentary elections, threatening future aid to Ukraine

Editor's Note: This is a developing story.

Czechia's populist Ano (Yes) party, led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babis, has won the Oct. 3-4 parliamentary elections with around 35% of the vote, according to preliminary results.

With over 98% of votes counted, Ano leads with 34.6%, while the ruling Spolu (Together) party holds 23.27%. The liberal centrist STAN party follows with about 11% of the votes, followed by the liberal Pirates (8.8%) and far-right SPD (7.8%) .

Ano has not won an outright majority and will have to cooperate with other factions to form a governing coalition. Current election results indicate the party has earned 81 seats in the Chamber of Deputies, Prague's 200-member lower house of parliament.

The Ano party is opposed to Ukraine's membership in the European Union and does not support aid to Ukraine. The party will have the first opportunity to form a new coalition government and is expected to partner with populist, right-wing, and anti-NATO factions.

Parties needed to clear a 5% threshold to earn seats in parliament. Babis is expected to begin talks with the SPD and another right-wing populist movement, Motorists for Themselves, a Euroskeptic faction founded in 2022 that gained 6.78% of votes.

Billionaire oligarch Babis previously served as prime minister from 2017-2021. His party was favored to win the elections after he surged in popularity due to concerns over the economy and criticisms of the current government, led by Prime Minister Petr Fiala.

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As Czechs prepare to vote, the anticipated supremacy of the right-wing populist Ano (Yes) movement extends well beyond Prague. Oligarch Andrej Babiš and his political project are already influential in the broader dynamics of Central European politics and Ukraine’s strategic considerations. However, multiple actors hold the levers of regional stability. Here’s what hangs in the balance in the upcoming general election set for Oct 3-4. According to the latest poll, Babiš’s Ano (Yes) leads with

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Czechia has been one of Kyiv's staunchest allies since the early days of Russia's full-scale invasion. Prague has supplied tanks, multiple launch rocket systems, and helicopters in military aid packages and hosted hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees.

Most significantly, Czechia in 2024 launched its ammunition initiative to provide Ukraine with urgently needed artillery shells during a severe front-line shortage. Czechia served as an intermediary for 15 participating nations buying shells for Ukraine on global markets.

The program has made a significant impact, with President Volodymyr Zelensky crediting the initiative for saving lifes on the battlefield and strengthening Ukrainian troops' positions.

Czechia plans to provide Ukraine with up to 1.8 million shells by the end of 2025.

Ano's win threatens the future of the ammunition initiative, as Babis has sharply criticized the scheme and pledged to do away with it if his party regains power.

Babis has also expressed sympathy for other European nationalist leaders, such as Hungarian Prime Minister and Kremlin ally Viktor Orban, and claimed Ukraine's membership in the EU would be a "complete catastrophe."

In a comment to the Ukrainian news outlet Suspilne shortly after his electoral victory, Babis insisted that Ukraine is "not ready" to join the EU. He also said Czechia supports Ukraine, but should limit the funds it provides to Kyiv in order to prioritize Czech citizens.

"We are helping Ukraine through EU, EU is helping Ukraine and it is within the European budget and we are paying a lot of money to the European budget, and this is the way how we will continue to help," Babis said.

The Czech ammunition initiative "should be organized by NATO," he added.

When asked about Ukraine's EU accession, Babis claimed Kyiv is not ready.

"You are not prepared for EU," Babis said. "You have to end the war first, and of course, we can cooperate with Ukraine, but you are not ready for EU."

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