As Patriot missiles run low, Ukraine scrambles for alternatives under Russian missile fire

Russia fired 34 ballistic missiles at Ukraine during the June 15 overnight attack that set part of Kyiv's historic Pechersk Lavra compound aflame. Kyiv's Patriot batteries shot down 15 of the 19 ballistic missiles fired at the capital, along with five out of six 3M22 "Zirkon" hypersonic cruise missiles, according to local monitors.

The attack laid bare the problem now driving Ukraine's air defense scramble: Patriot remains the only proven Western-supplied system Kyiv has against Russian ballistic missiles, and the missiles it needs to fire from those batteries are scarce, expensive, and increasingly in demand elsewhere.

"We had a package of missiles for Patriot," President Volodymyr Zelensky told a Kyiv Independent journalist in the Pechersk Lavra compound, as firefighters continued to douse the still smoldering roof of the Dormition Cathedral.

"It was recently delivered to Ukraine; thank God."

With Russia pressing its ballistic missile advantage, Ukraine is responding by chasing three imperfect options at once: finding aging PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptors abroad, trading its expertise against Iranian-designed drones for Patriot missiles, and trying to build its own anti-ballistic missile defense system.

A critical shortage

Even before the U.S-Israeli war with Iran diverted interceptors previously earmarked for Ukraine to America's Gulf allies, Kyiv was struggling to keep its Patriot batteries supplied.

Lockheed Martin currently manufactures only 650 PAC-3 interceptors per year, which the company plans to boost to 2,000 by 2033. However, even if the entire production line were dedicated to producing interceptors solely for Ukraine, it still wouldn't be sufficient.

Ukrainian intelligence assesses Russia can manufacture "about 120 ballistic missiles per month," Zelensky told the NATO-Ukraine Council meeting in Kyiv on June 3. That amounts to a a production rate of 1,440 per year.    

That imbalance is increasingly being felt during Russia's large-scale missile attacks.

"Interceptor missiles are desperately needed during such massive strikes, as Russian forces are increasingly using ballistic missiles because they see this as our weakness," Colonel Yurii Ihnat, head of the Communications Department of the Ukrainian Air Force, told the Kyiv Independent.

Other Western systems offer little relief against that specific threat. Speaking to Ukrainian outlet Radio NV, Ihnat said that the version of the Franco-Italian SAMP/T system Ukraine has been provided with, although a capable system against other aerial threats, was not capable of shooting down ballistic missiles.  

"SAMP/T systems have been in Ukraine for a long time and have even shot down Russian aircraft. But we must hope for the modification that will be able to protect us from ballistic missiles today," Ihnat said.

"The MIM-104 Patriot has proven itself. The version of SAMP/T currently in our possession has not yet been used against ballistic missiles."

Bargaining and bartering

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi told journalists in a press briefing on June 10 that Ukraine had identified a number of PAC-2 and PAC-3 interceptors that were approaching the end of their service life and had opened talks to acquire them.

"We are currently engaged in active negotiations to obtain them, because what is the point of returning missiles to the manufacturer or disposing of them once they have reached the end of their service life?" Tykhyi said.

Ukraine has also been keen to leverage its expertise in countering Russia's Iranian-designed Shahed drones, which have inflicted significant damage to American military targets in the Persian Gulf during the ongoing Israeli-American war with Iran.

Noting that the U.S. and other countries have stockpiles of Patriot interceptor missiles, which are uneconomical to use against cheap Iranians drones, Zelensky offered to provide Ukrainian FPV interceptors in exchange for Patriot interceptors.

"If they give (PAC-3 missiles) to us, we will give them interceptors. It is an equal exchange," the Ukrainian president told a press briefing attended by the Kyiv Independent on March 3.

Ukraine looks to build its own system

In the absence of sufficient stocks of Patriot interceptors — and a European system not capable of intercepting ballistic missiles — Ukraine is also attempting to build its own "Freya" anti-ballistic missile air defense system.

Fire Point, the Ukrainian defense concern behind the successful FP-1 and FP-2 long range drones and the FP-5 "Flamingo" cruise missile, conducted a test of the missile component of the Freya air defense system, the FP-7x anti-ballistic missile interceptor, which co-owner and chief designer of Fire Point Denys Shtilierman described as "pretty successful."

Shtilierman told the Financial Times (FT) that mass production could begin in August, depending on support from European partners. "Finishing this depends on the speed of our western partners and when they start moving," he told the FT.

Fire Point isn't starting from scratch. The FP-7x is a reverse-engineered design modeled on the S-400 missile, a Soviet system first developed in the 1980s.

"We created a clone of the S-400, which we named the FP-7. It’s made of carbon fiber, so it's lighter; therefore, it will likely fly even farther and be more maneuverable than the S-400," Shtilierman said.

Fire Point plans to source other components of the "Freya" system, such as radars and command centers, from Europe.

Despite the apparently successful test, independent experts aren't convinced. Fabian Hoffman, a Senior Research Fellow at the Norwegian Institute for Defense Studies, told the Kyiv Independent he was "very skeptical" that Fire Point could create an effective ballistic missile defense system that could rival the Patriot, especially in such an ambitious timescale.

"MBDA has decades of experience with SAMP/T and we see that the performance is nowhere close to Patriot," Hoffman said.

"If you are telling me that a new manufacturer with no air defence experience at all is going to develop a ballistic missile defence  system within a very short time that approaches Patriot in effectiveness, you have to explain to me how you are going to do it."

A senior Ukrainian Air Force officer, speaking to the Kyiv Independent on condition of anonymity, shared Hoffman's skepticism.

"Building a missile capable of intercepting ballistic missiles is extremely difficult," the officer said, adding that he found it "hard to believe" that Ukraine could develop such a system within a reasonable time frame. "If this happens, it would truly be a breakthrough," the officer told the Kyiv Independent.

Despite the skepticism, both the Air Force officer and Hoffman believe Fire Point's decision to collaborate with other European defense companies is a smart move.

"Fire Point's decision to cooperate with outside partners is a point in their favor," Hoffman said.

Fire Point did not respond to a request for comment.