This week, the world watched in anticipation for Russia’s Victory Day parade after President Volodymyr Zelensky commented that he could not guarantee the safety of those attending. Meanwhile, the European Union moves one step forward to banning Russian gas from the European continent. It is also revealed this week that U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has fallen out of step with the White House.
"(Russian) President (Vladimir) Putin... doesn't want to have a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the bloodbath. Ukraine should agree to this, immediately," U.S. President Donald Trump said.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will travel to to Antalya, Turkey, for a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting from May 14–16, where he is expected to address the war in Ukraine and push for stronger Allied defense commitments.
The Kremlin said the leaders held a detailed discussion about the Russian initiative and Erdogan expressed full support, reiterating Turkey’s readiness to provide a venue and assist in organizing the negotiations.
Erdogan told Macron that international cooperation is critical for initiating peace negotiations and the "sensitive implementation" of Ukraine’s recovery and reconstruction processes, the Turkish Presidency reported.
The assault began around 2 a.m. on May 11, with Russian forces deploying 108 Shahed-type attack drones and decoy UAVs from multiple directions, Ukraine’s Air Force said.
General Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. commander in Europe, holds a closing press conference after a NATO Military Chiefs of Defence Meeting at NATO headquarters on Jan. 19, 2023, in Brussels, Belgium. (Omar Havana/Getty Images)
The Russian military has largely replaced its heavy battlefield losses in Ukraine, and at a much faster pace than anticipated, said General Christopher Cavoli, the top U.S. commander in Europe, in a written statement to Congress on April 11.
Total estimates of Russia's casualties and equipment losses since the full-scale invasion vary widely.
The BBC's Russian service, along with the Russian independent media outlet Mediazona, confirmed the identities of more than 50,000 Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine earlier in April. The true death toll is thought to be much higher.
According to the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces, Russia has also lost more than 20,000 armored fighting vehicles and tanks, as well as hundreds of planes and helicopters.
Despite this, Cavoli said that Russia has effectively rebuilt its forces.
"The overall message I would give you is (Russia's military has) grown back to what they were before (February 2022)," Cavoli wrote.
"They've got some gaps that have been produced by this war, but their overall capacity is very significant still, and they intend to make it go higher."
Cavoli added that Russia now possesses more frontline troops than it did before the full-scale invasion.
"Russia is reconstituting that force far faster than our initial estimates suggested," Cavoli wrote. "The army is actually now larger — by 15 percent — than it was when it invaded Ukraine."
The renewed strength of Russia's military is not limited to personnel, Cavoli wrote. Russia now operates as many tanks as it did before the full-scale invasion, he added.
The dire warning comes against the backdrop of a weakening Ukrainian position on the battlefield and a shortage of ammunition, which has been exacerbated by an ongoing impasse in Congress over U.S. aid.
Cavoli said that Russian forces are firing five shells for every one that Ukraine fires — a disparity which he warned could increase to 10 to one in coming weeks — and emphasized the centrality of U.S. aid in Ukraine's ability to defend itself.
"(Ukraine is) really dependent this year on us...and without our support, they will not be able to prevail."
Nate Ostiller is a former News Editor at the Kyiv Independent. He works on special projects as a researcher and writer for The Red Line Podcast, covering Eastern Europe and Eurasia, and focused primarily on digital misinformation, memory politics, and ethnic conflict. Nate has a Master’s degree in Russian and Eurasian Studies from the University of Glasgow, and spent two years studying abroad at Kyiv-Mohyla Academy in Ukraine. Originally from the USA, he is currently based in Tbilisi, Georgia.
Dmytro Basmat
