Key developments on Oct. 29:
- Russia claims capture of Selydove, Kyiv hasn't confirmed
- Small number of North Korean troops already in Ukraine, CNN reports
- Zelensky asked US for Tomahawk missiles in secret clause of victory plan, NYT reports
- South Korean delegation to visit Ukraine to share information on North Korean troops
- Romania's Defense Ministry proposes downing drones violating its airspace
Russia's Defense Ministry claimed on Oct. 29 that its forces had captured the town of Selydove in Donetsk Oblast, which lies close to the key logistics hub of Pokrovsk.
Ukraine has not commented on the claims.
Observers and the Ukrainian military have warned of an increasingly difficult situation in the town as Russian forces have been pushing forward over the past few weeks.
While Kyiv did not confirm whether Russia captured the town, an expert told the Kyiv Independent that Selydove is effectively "lost."
"There can be some Ukrainians in the western parts, but the city is basically lost," said Emil Kastehelmi, a military expert and open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyst at the Finland-based Black Bird Group.
"That's the biggest city to fall after Avdiivka in the winter. And it fell in a couple of weeks or so. So it was a quick, quick move."
The Ukrainian military said on Oct. 29 that it had repelled 11 Russian attacks in the Pokrovsk sector, including near Selydove.
The town's fall would spell dire news for Pokrovsk, which lies only around 18 kilometers (11 miles) northwest. Russian forces have been inching toward Pokrovsk for the past couple of months, with their push in Donetsk Oblast recently gaining a long-unseen pace.
Selydove was home to around 21,000 people before the full-scale invasion in 2022. Russia's offensive, accompanied by artillery barrages and heavy aerial bombardment, has driven thousands of civilians from their homes.
Chris York
Small number of North Korean troops already in Ukraine, CNN reports
A small number of North Korean forces are already on the territory of Ukraine, CNN reported on Oct. 29, citing two Western intelligence officers.
NATO and the Pentagon previously confirmed that North Korean troops were training in Russia and that some of them were on their way to Russia's Kursk Oblast, part of which Ukrainian forces have controlled since August.
There was no confirmation of the presence of North Korean troops in Ukraine before.
"It seems that a good many of them are already in action," one of the officials told CNN, referring to the North Koreans.
The first North Korean troops were to be deployed in the combat zone on Oct. 27 or 28, President Volodymyr Zelensky said earlier.
U.S. and South Korean diplomatic and military officials will meet in Washington this week to discuss North Korea's "expanding relationship with Russia," said U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.
Presidential Office chief Andriy Yermak is also currently in Washington. According to CNN, he met with National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and State Secretary Antony Blinken on Oct. 29. Yermak mentioned that he and Sullivan discussed "North Korean soldiers whom Russia is preparing for war."
Chris York
How helpful the North Korean military will be to the Russian army on the battlefield is not yet clear. Many of the North Korean troops are special forces, and intelligence assessments suggest that Pyongyang believes its troops have greater combat power than regular Russian troops because they are better trained and specialized, officials told CNN.
The North Korean military has not been involved in a war for over 70 years, and intelligence officials believe the North Korean government sent them there largely so they could gain combat experience.
Officials also expect that at least some of the soldiers will desert their units once they are on the battlefield and that the language barrier with the Russians will be a significant obstacle to smooth operations.
The Russians are teaching North Korean soldiers basic Russian commands in training, such as "fire" and "back to your position," South Korean lawmakers told reporters on Oct. 29.
North Korea and Russia have strengthened ties since the full-scale war began, including signing a new mutual defense pact. Ukraine and Western governments have previously accused North Korea of providing weapons to Russia – allegations both Pyongyang and Moscow have denied.
Ukrainian military intelligence reported on Oct. 24 that approximately 12,000 North Korean troops, including 500 officers and three generals, were already in Russia and undergoing training at five military bases.
Three Russian soldiers will be assigned to every group of 30 North Korean fighters, Ukraine's military intelligence agency reported on Oct. 25, citing an intercepted conversation between service members of a Russian brigade in Kursk Oblast.
However, doubts remain in the Russian army about the possibility of carrying this out in practice.
Chris York
Zelensky asked US for Tomahawk missiles as part of victory plan's secret part, NYT reports
President Volodymyr Zelensky asked for Tomahawk missiles from the U.S. as part of the "non-nuclear deterrence package" in his victory plan, the New York Times reported on Oct. 29, citing undisclosed U.S. officials.
Zelensky’s victory plan comprises five points with three classified parts. The third point refers to non-nuclear deterrence, a part of which is classified.
Ukraine is proposing a "comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package on its territory" that would safeguard the country against future aggression, a part of which would consist of receiving Tomahawk missiles, according to the Times' report.
Tomahawk missiles have a range of more than 2,400 kilometers (1,500 miles), seven times the range of the long-range missile systems called ATACMS that Ukraine received from the U.S.
According to the officials, Ukraine did not manage to convince Western diplomats why it needed Tomahawks. The number of Ukraine’s targets in Russia also allegedly far exceeds the stockpiles the U.S. could hand over without jeopardizing its interests in the Middle East and Asia.
The outlet also cites four U.S. officials who claimed Zelensky was surprised that U.S. President Joe Biden did not grant him permission to use U.S. long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia when they met in Washington in September. This was confirmed by Zelensky's office.
Martin Fornusek
South Korean delegation to visit Ukraine to share information on North Korean troops
A South Korean delegation will visit Ukraine in the second part of the week to share information on North Korea's troops in Russia and discuss cooperation, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said on Oct. 28, the Yonhap news agency reported.
Yoon's comments come shortly after NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed on Oct. 28 that North Korea had sent troops to Russia following a meeting with South Korean defense and intelligence officials.
"I hope that under Secretary General Rutte's leadership, NATO will redouble efforts to monitor and block illegal exchanges between Russia and North Korea in solidarity and coordination," Yoon said.
The growing North Korean support for Russia's war, namely the dispatch of troops, sparked discussions in South Korea on revising internal legislation to allow military supplies to Ukraine.
Yoon added that the South Korean delegation will brief the EU Political and Security Committee on Oct. 29, after which they will travel to Ukraine to meet with intelligence and defense officials to exchange battlefield information and explore cooperation measures.
"It is a grave situation where the actual deployment of North Korean troops to the front lines in Ukraine could happen sooner than expected," Yoon commented.
Romania's Defense Ministry proposes downing drones violating its airspace
Romania could shoot down aircraft illegally violating its airspace based on the level of threat, according to a draft law published by the Romanian Defense Ministry on Oct. 28.
Bucharest reported numerous cases of Russian drones crashing on its territory or violating its airspace near the Ukrainian border following mass strikes on Ukraine.
According to the proposed legislation, the Romanian military would be able to intercept and, when necessary, destroy piloted and unmanned aircraft breaching its airspace under certain circumstances.
The document must be approved by the Romanian government and the parliament.
Depending on the level of threat, "unauthorized" drones may be disabled or taken control of with "non-kinetic" means or shot down.
The interception of a piloted aircraft would follow several steps, including establishing radio contact, transmitting instructions to the pilot, and firing a warning shot. The use of "destructive force" by aircraft or ground-based air defenses would be the last resort.
The Romanian military would attempt to shoot down the aircraft only after establishing all the circumstances and the level of threat and taking into account international law and the safety of people's lives and property, the document says.
Allied forces stationed in Romania would be permitted to take part in the operations.
Romania has urged NATO partners to present a "robust and coordinated" response to Russian missiles and drones violating the allied airspace. Latvia and Poland also reported similar breaches.
Ukraine has urged NATO to intercept Russian drones and missiles over Ukrainian airspace both to protect Ukraine and their own countries. No country has committed to that step so far nor intercepted Russian projectiles in its airspace.
Martin Fornusek
