On July 17, 2023, Russia pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The initiative was originally brokered in August 2022 by Turkey between Russia and Ukraine. It had been successful in facilitating the export of 32.5 million tonnes of grain out of Ukrainian ports, leaving in over 1,
As we approach the much heralded and expectant Ukraine Recovery Conference due to be held in London later this month, I cannot help but feeling a little perplexed, or even disturbed by a number of developments – is it just me? But... First, I am just amazed how quickly an industry
Editor’s Note: The following is taken from Timothy Ash's Substack blog, @tashecon blog, and republished with his permission. The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent. First, I think ideally Xi would want
Editor’s Note: The opinions expressed in the op-ed section are those of the authors and do not purport to reflect the views of the Kyiv Independent. Over the past month, we have seen a sudden, and somewhat surprising, volte-face by China in terms of its approach to Russia’s
(Editor's note: This op-ed was first sent out to Mr. Ash's mailing list subscribers. The Kyiv Independent is republishing it with permission.) I'm sad to say that my baseline scenario, which I have held since the US intel warnings in November, is playing out - I have warned of a
Editor’s Note: This op-ed was published by Atlantic Council. It is republished here with permission. Russian President Vladimir Putin has moved to escalate tensions with Ukraine in recent months by putting a huge and unprecedented Russian military force on its borders while launching a concerted “coercive” diplomatic effort sketching
I have certainly put myself out there as having the most hawkish view on Russia (compared to the street consensus), but I still find it difficult to see anything but escalation by Russia with Ukraine from the current postures. Why? First, I just don’t see much room for compromise
Editor’s Note: The following are the analytical notes that Timothy Ash, senior strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, distributes to his subscribers. The Kyiv Independent is reposting it with permission. It seems that “order” will be restored in Kazakhstan, but only with the help of Russian/CSTO (Collective Security Treaty
Editor’s Note: The following are the analytical notes that Timothy Ash, senior strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, distributes to his subscribers. The Kyiv Independent is reposting it with permission. Despite fighting talk from Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, it’s unclear whether he has the support of enough of the
Editor's Note: The following are the analytical notes that Timothy Ash, senior strategist at Bluebay Asset Management, distributes to his subscribers. The Kyiv Independent is reposting it with permission. With lots of focus now on the heightened military threat from Russia, I assume there will be concern about how durable
