Russia may lose its chance for world leadership if it does not halt its full-scale war against Ukraine by 2026, Ukraine's military intelligence (HUR) head Kyrylo Budanov said in an interview with Ukrinform published on Feb. 27.
Earlier this month, Budanov said he believes that Ukraine and Russia will reach a ceasefire this year. His comments come as U.S. President Donald Trump has pushed to mediate a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia while using increasingly hostile rhetoric toward Kyiv.
Asked whether the Kremlin wants to make a peace deal now to build up its strength, Budanov agreed, saying that Russia needs a break.
"According to their (Russia's) strategy, if they don't get out of this war by 2026, they lose even a chance for world leadership. They will be left with a maximum level of regional leadership, which they are absolutely not satisfied with," the spy chief said.
According to Budanov, the financial cost of the war is "too high" for Moscow, which prevents it from focusing on development and large-scale projects. Russia has problems with its economy, but it will be able to "balance" it out as long as it has oil, gas, and precious metals, he added.
"There is a lack of technologies, technological solutions that are not available in Russia, primarily for the development of the Arctic region, gas production, etc.," Budanov said.
Dominic Culverwell
Throughout the three years of Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine's Western partners imposed heavy sanctions on Moscow to undermine its ability to wage war. Initially, Russia has largely weathered the sanctions, circumventing economic restrictions through third-party countries and various loopholes.
The situation appears to be shifting as Russia has faced mounting economic challenges over the past months, compounded by labor shortages and military spending-induced inflation that led to record interest rates.
In the fall of 2023, Budanov said that Russia likely has the economic and technical capacity to continue its war against Ukraine until 2025 or 2026. In office since 2020, Budanov has at times made radical predictions about the full-scale war that have not always come true.
Martin Fornusek
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