Ukraine is not on track to defeat Russia on the battlefield, U.S. Vice President JD Vance said on April 28 while defending the Trump administration's efforts to negotiate a peace deal.
While U.S. President Donald Trump's vows to end the war within his first 100 days of office was not fulfilled, Washington continues to press both sides to reach a ceasefire. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on April 27 that the next week will determine whether the U.S. remains involved in the peace process or withdraws as a mediator altogether.
"Sometimes you're incredibly furstrated with the Ukrainians, sometimes you're incredibly frustrated with the Russians," Vance said on the Charlie Kirk Show podcast.
The U.S. team is "making progress" in the negotiations, the vice president said, but a peace deal is not necessarily guaranteed.
"I can't say with 100 percent certainty, Charlie, that we're going to be able to do it," he said.
Vance did not discuss the details of the proposed peace agreements, but did say he believes Ukraine will not be able to defeat Russia militarily and take back its occupied territories by force.
"If this doesn't stop, the Ukrainians aren't winning the war," Vance said.
"I think there's this weird idea among the mainstream media that if this thing goes on for just another few years, the Russians will collapse, the Ukrainians will take their territory back, and everything will go back to the way that it was before the war. That is not the reality that we live in."
Vance said that if the war drags on, Russia and Ukraine would both face societal collapse, millions more lives could be lost, and the risk of nucelar war would escalate.
"It has to stop. It is the policy of this administration that it stops," Vance said.
The U.S. proposal for peace in Ukraine reportedly involves significant concessions from Kyiv, including formal recognition of Russia's annexation of Crimea. Ukrainian and European officials have put forth an alternative plan that involves U.S. security guarantees and no promises of territorial concessions until after a full ceasefire is implemented.
The Kremlin, meanwhile, continues to insist on maximalist demands in ceasefire negotiations, despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement of a three-day truce in honor of Victory Day.
Moscow requires international recognition of its illegal annexation of Crimea, as well as the entirety of Ukraine's Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson oblasts, as a condition for peace talks, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said on April 28.
Ukraine has already agreed to a U.S.-proposed 30-day ceasefire and has repeatedly urged Russia to implement an unconditional truce. President Volodymyr Zelensky said he reiterated this aim in his face-to-face meeting with Trump at the Vatican on April 26.
Chris York
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