NATO allies are unlikely to meet U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's proposed spending target of 5% of GDP but are open to an increase from the current 2%, Reuters reported on Jan. 10, citing comments from officials and analysts from various NATO countries.
On Jan. 7, Trump called for an increase to the NATO spending target to 5% of GDP, up from NATO's current target of 2%. Other NATO allies have urged increased spending in response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
"I think NATO should have 5%," Trump said at a news conference in Florida, confirming earlier reports about the incoming U.S. president urging allies to raise defense spending to a benchmark no NATO member has reached as of now, including the U.S.
While many NATO members are not open to a 5% spending target, some many NATO allies are open to increasing the spending target to a widely agreed upon target. NATO members may agree to increase the spending target to 3% of GDP, Reuters reported.
"It seems there will be a shift... I don't think it will be 5%, which would be impossible for almost every nation in the world right now but... it will not be two (percent), which we are already struggling to reach, but it will be more than two," Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto told Reuters.
On Dec. 12 the Financial Times reported that European NATO foreign ministers began discussing a plan to gradually increase the alliance’s defense spending target from 2% of their GDP to 3% by 2030. According to sources, the alliance’s members would first increase their spending to 2.5% of GDP before reaching 3% by 2030.
Trump has criticized NATO member states that do not meet the current 2% of GDP spending target. Several NATO allies, including Italy, Canada, and Spain do not meet the current target, though the number of allies that do rose to 24 last year.
According to NATO estimates, Poland spent the greatest portion of its GDP on defense (4.12%) in 2024, followed by Estonia (3.43%) and the U.S. (3.38%).
In the face of Russia's war, Ukraine has drastically increased defense spending, despite not being a part of NATO. Ukraine will spend 26% of its GDP on defense spending in 2025.
Martin Fornusek
