Editor's note: The latest articles on Ukraine's incursion into Kursk Oblast can be found here.
Kyiv's surprise incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast will likely force the Kremlin to reassess the levels of personnel and materiel it can commit to offensive operations in Ukraine, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said on Aug. 11.
The ISW said Russia had treated its border with Ukraine as a "dormant frontline," that clearly did not have the level of military resources required to defend against such an attack.
"Russia's prolonged treatment of the international border area as a dormant frontline is a strategic failure of imagination," it said.
The Ukrainian military launched a surprise incursion across the border into Kursk Oblast on Aug. 6, bringing regular Ukrainian forces into Russia for the first time.
Although reinforcements sent by Moscow have begun to arrive on the battlefield, Ukraine has reportedly continued to advance farther into Kursk Oblast.
"Russia has spent considerable resources to build fortifications along the international border area but has not allocated the manpower and materiel to significantly man and defend those fortifications," the ISW said.
It added that Ukraine's offensive will likely force the Kremlin to shift resources from inside Ukraine to defend the border regions.
"This conclusion will narrow the flexibility Russia has enjoyed in committing manpower and materiel to its ongoing offensive efforts in Ukraine, and the Russian military command will have to consider the requirements for border defense when determining what resources it can allocate to future large-scale offensive and defensive efforts in Ukraine," the ISW added.
In Kursk Oblast on Aug. 12, Russian authorities announced the widening of civilian evacuation efforts.
In a post on Telegram, Alexey Smirnov, the acting governor of Kursk Oblast, said those living in the Belovsky district located on the border with Ukraine are being advised to leave.
"I instructed the regional Ministry of Transport to prepare additional transport; buses are already on duty in safe areas," he said.
"The main thing now is to promptly notify residents of populated areas about the opportunity to leave the area."
The Belovsky district is located some 20 kilometers (12 miles) from Sudzha, a town in Kursk region, in less than 10 kilometers (6 miles) from the border with Ukraine.
Ukrainian troops posted video footage on Aug. 9, claiming to be on the outskirts of Sudzha.
While Ukrainian officials and military command have so far not officially commented on the operation in Kursk Oblast, media are forced to rely on limited and questionable information circulated by Russian Telegram channels and videos of Ukrainian forces that often surface anonymously.
Francis Farrell
