Ukrainian troops may be forced to withdraw from the city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast, said Janek Kesselmann, the deputy commander of the Estonian Military Intelligence Center, in comments reported by ERR on Oct. 4.
The eastern front near Pokrovsk has been the scene of fierce fighting for several months and a focal point of Russia's offensive in Donetsk Oblast. The city is an important logistical hub for Ukrainian forces.
Russian forces were located less than 7 kilometers (4 miles) from the outskirts of the town as of Oct. 4, according to local authorities.
Over the past week, the average number of Russian attacks on the frontline has been 167 per day, with 50% of them targeting the Donetsk direction of the front line, according to Estonian military intelligence.
"In the direction of the town of Pokrovsk, which is at the center of the attacks, Russia has advanced somewhere between 1 and 2 kilometers (nearly 1 mile) in the last week, and the distance to the outskirts of Pokrovsk, as far as we know, is about 5 to 7 kilometers (3-4 miles)," Kesselmann said.
If this intensity continues, it is likely that by the end of 2024, Ukrainian forces will be forced to withdraw from Pokrovsk and take up positions "a little deeper," Kesselmann added.
Kesselmann also singled out the capture of Vuhledar by Russian troops as "an important event" of the recent week.
Ukraine's 72nd Mechanized Brigade had defended Vuhledar, key to Ukrainian defenses in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, for nearly two years. Russian forces had been attempting to capture the town since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.
Vuhledar withstood numerous attacks in recent weeks as Russian forces attempted to encircle the town. Local authorities confirmed that Russian troops entered Vuhledar on Oct. 1. On the following day, Ukrainian forces withdrew from Vuhledar.
"In our assessment, Ukrainian units have taken defensive positions approximately 7 to 8 kilometers (nearly 4 miles) to the north. And as Ukraine has been forced to withdraw from the town, we will likely see the consolidation of enemy activities in that direction," Kesselmann said.
Pokrovsk, like Vuhledar, was one of Russia's key targets in the Donetsk sector of the front line this summer and early fall.
Residents of the northern part of Donetsk Oblast will be left without water supply for an "indefinite period" due to Russian attacks, Donetsk Oblast Governor Vadym Filashkin said on Oct. 3.
Around 13,000 people, including 94 children, remain in Pokrovsk as the evacuation is ongoing. The town had a population of around 60,000 in January 2022.
As the security situation deteriorates, Pokrovsk's train station was closed for civilian evacuations earlier this month. Evacuations now depart from the train station in Pavlohrad in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, a city 100 kilometers (62 miles) west of Pokrovsk.
Francis Farrell
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