Skip to content
Edit post

British Intelligence: Mobilization ahead of March 2024 Russian presidential election 'highly unlikely'

by Nate Ostiller October 10, 2023 1:05 PM 2 min read
Reservists drafted during Russia's "partial" mobilization for its full-scale war against Ukraine attend a departure ceremony in Sevastopol, Russian-occupied Crimea, on Sept. 27, 2022. (STRINGER/AFP via Getty Images)
This audio is created with AI assistance

Support independent journalism in Ukraine. Join us in this fight.

Become a member Support us just once

The chances of a new round of mobilization in Russia before the upcoming presidential election in March 2024 are low, the British Ministry of Defense wrote on Oct. 10.

Such a move would likely be unpopular, and although elections in Russia are tightly controlled, they are still "a core tool of political legitimization."

Previous rounds of mobilization caused hundreds of thousands of Russians, perhaps more than a million, to flee the country to avoid being drafted. They also sparked protests and other signs of public discontent at home.

The Kremlin aims "to minimize unpopular policy moves" ahead of the election, the Ministry wrote, and another large-scale mobilization would possibly upend attempts to insulate Russians from the impacts of the war.

Instead of officially calling for a new round of mobilization, Russia has so far tried to incentivize voluntary service. There have also been attempts to recruit foreigners and exploit Central Asian migrant workers in Russia by offering fast-track citizenship in exchange for military service.

Although Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has not officially announced he will seek reelection, there has been speculation that he will publicly declare sometime in November.

It is unclear if other candidates will nominally participate, but if Putin decides to run, his victory is all but assured. Freedom House, a nonprofit advocating international democracy, gave Russia a 0/4 score in its 2022 report card on political freedoms in the country.

"Russia has never experienced a democratic transfer of power between rival groups," described Freedom House. Any meaningful opposition is prevented from having a fair chance at winning elections, creating "an authoritarian political system (that) is concentrated in the hands of President Vladimir Putin."

Ukraine war latest: Russia provides Hamas with Western weapons captured in Ukraine, Kyiv says
Key developments on Oct. 9: * Military intelligence: Russia gives Hamas weapons captured in Ukraine to discredit Kyiv * Military intelligence confirms missile attack on targets in Russian-occupied Crimea * Kuleba: ‘If Ukraine loses the war, it will be end of Europe’ * Shmyhal: 6 million people…
Before you skip this banner, we want to tell you something…

The Kyiv Independent doesn’t depend on a wealthy owner or an oligarch — in 2023, 80% of our revenue was from reader contributions . It’s thanks to them that we don’t have to rely on a single owner.

Support us now and help maintain our independent model and keep our articles free for everyone. Your contributions allow us to cover journalists’ salaries, report from the front lines, and fund projects like our War Crimes Investigations Unit.

visa masterCard americanExpress

News Feed

Ukraine Daily
News from Ukraine in your inbox
Ukraine news
Please, enter correct email address
MORE NEWS

Editors' Picks

Enter your email to subscribe
Please, enter correct email address
Subscribe
* indicates required
* indicates required
Subscribe
* indicates required
* indicates required
Subscribe
* indicates required

Subscribe

* indicates required
Subscribe
* indicates required

Subscribe

* indicates required
Subscribe
* indicates required

Subscribe

* indicates required
Successfuly subscribed
Thank you for signing up for this newsletter. We’ve sent you a confirmation email.