The recent attacks in Russian border regions create a dilemma for Moscow to either reinforce its own borders or its positions in Ukraine, the U.K. Defense Ministry wrote on June 2.
The intelligence assessment comes after the reported June 1 incursion by Russian militias that claim to fight on Ukraine's side into Belgorod Oblast.
The U.K. report adds that the Russian forces were more successful in containing the raid compared to the one conducted in May.
For that purpose, Russia deployed heavy firepower in its own territory, including attack helicopters and the TOS-1A heavy thermobaric rocket launcher, according to Russia's Defense Ministry.
The Russian anti-government militias announced the incursion into Belgorod Oblast on June 1.
Local officials reported heavy shelling in several districts, and the Russian Ministry of Defense later stated it had repelled "Ukrainian" attacks near the city of Shebekino, allegedly killing up to 50 invaders.
The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify the claim.