Russia's focus on Ukraine weakened support for Syria's Assad, UK Defense Ministry says

Russia’s focus on the war in Ukraine has significantly reduced its ability to support Syria’s Assad regime, increasing the risk of losing key military assets in the region, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on Dec. 13 via X.

Russian officials almost certainly view the collapse of the Assad regime as detrimental to their "regional interests" and damaging to their image as a "security guarantor," the ministry said.

In Syria, Russia's primary goal has been to maintain control over critical military assets, including its largest overseas naval base in Tartus and the airbase in Khmeimim. These installations provide Moscow with strategic access to the Near East and Mediterranean Sea, enabling it to project military power across Africa and beyond.

However, the potential collapse of Assad’s regime has “almost certainly increased the risk to the security of these assets,” according to the report.

U.K. Defense Intelligence noted that Russia's leadership has prioritized the conflict in Ukraine, likely undermining its ability to sustain support for Assad in Syria.

In light of these developments, Russia is expected to focus on repairing its international reputation as a reliable partner. The intelligence update predicts Moscow will “highly likely seek to engage diplomatically with all relevant actors” to secure guarantees for its military bases and preserve its regional influence.

Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s representative for foreign affairs, commented that the Assad regime’s potential collapse underscores the growing weakness of its allies, including Russia. According to Kallas, this situation highlights the limits of Russia’s capacity to support its partners while managing its prolonged war in Ukraine.

As Assad’s regime teetered, Russia had already begun withdrawing military equipment and naval assets from Syria. On Dec. 10, Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence (HUR) reported that Russia was evacuating forces as one of its key military bases came under siege.

Satellite imagery corroborates these reports, showing a visible reduction in Russia’s military presence at critical facilities.

The collapse of Assad’s regime shows the limits of Russian airpower

After a decade-long civil war, Bashar al-Assad was firmly ensconced in Damascus — a far cry from the summer of 2012 and again in 2015, when policymakers, analysts, and pundits alike believed his rule was on the brink of collapse. The intervention of the Russian Air Force in the fall of

The Kyiv IndependentIbrahim Al-Marashi