Russian losses exceeded recruitment for second month in a row, Ukraine says
Russian troop losses in January exceeded the number of newly mobilized and contracted soldiers for the second consecutive month, Robert "Magyar" Brovdi, commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, has said.
That month, Russia recruited or mobilized around 22,000 personnel, while verified Russian losses reached 30,618 troops, Brovdi said, citing data from Ukraine's Defense Forces drone units. The figures indicate a negative balance of 8,618 personnel for the month.
The manpower balance remains strategically important as the Kremlin tries to sustain the war without full mobilization. Moscow continues to rely on contract recruitment and financial rewards to avoid the political backlash that followed the 2022 draft.
In December 2025, Russian losses also exceeded recruitment. That month, Russia added 27,400 contract soldiers, while losses reached 33,200 killed and wounded.
The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify the figures.
Brovdi, in a social media post on Feb. 5, noted that January's losses were 22% lower than in December, which he attributed to poor weather conditions and a relative slowdown in Russian assault activity.
Still, he cautioned that the current imbalance is "not a reason for applause," adding that Ukraine's goal is to at least offset Russian recruitment and gradually raise monthly losses to around 50,000 troops to significantly weaken Moscow's offensive potential.
Ukraine's military intelligence agency (HUR) argues the imbalance does not signal a long-term manpower crisis for Moscow.
According to data shared with the Kyiv Independent, Russia's Defense Ministry remains capable of sustaining annual recruitment of at least 400,000 contract soldiers. HUR said the Kremlin can increase contract recruitment whenever necessary, as it did in 2025 and 2024.
