Close to 50% of Poles believe that a Russian attack on Poland is "likely," according to a survey released by the Polish media outlet RMF24 on Feb. 22.
The survey results correspond with growing concerns that the West doesn't take the risk of a potential war between Russia and NATO in the near future seriously. NATO militaries have strengthened their capacity and preparedness since the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, but NATO officials have warned in recent months that such preparations may not be enough to avert a continent-wide war.
The 47% of Polish respondents who said that a Russian attack on Poland was probable represented a 16% increase from when a similar poll was conducted in May 2023.
The poll also found that Poles were pessimistic about the prospects of a Ukrainian victory, with only 17% believing it would be possible. The figure aligned with a poll released by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) on Feb. 21, in which on average, only 10% of Europeans thought Ukraine would win the war.
While only 14% of respondents to the RMF poll said that they thought Russia would win, a plurality (47%) believed that the war "will last for many years and will result in the destruction of both countries."
Recent polling in the U.S. resulted in similar conclusions.
A survey released on Feb. 13 by the Quincy Institute and the Harris Poll found that only 12% of Americans believed Ukraine would win the war.
Almost 70% said that the administration of U.S. President Joe Biden should push for Ukraine to "engage in diplomatic negotiations with Russia and the U.S. as soon as possible" to end the war.
At the same time, according to another poll released by the Pew Institute on Feb. 16, an overwhelming majority (74%) of U.S. respondents said that the war in Ukraine was important to national interests.
As the U.S. commitment to NATO is increasingly in question due to presidential candidate Donald Trump's potential election in 2024 and his controversial remarks about the alliance, Poland has pledged to significantly increase the size of its armed forces.
Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said in September 2023 that he believed Poland would soon amass a force of 300,000 soldiers, making it the largest land army in Europe.
Nate Ostiller
