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Leaked intelligence documents suggest war in Ukraine may drag on past 2023

by The Kyiv Independent news desk April 12, 2023 11:13 PM 2 min read
Ukrainian servicemen ride on a YPR-765 armoured personnel carrier (APC) on a road near Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, on April 11, 2023, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (Photo by Genya Savilov/AFP via Getty Images)
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Recently leaked U.S. intelligence documents suggest that the war in Ukraine may persist "well beyond" 2023, Reuters reported on April 12.

According to the documents, Reuters wrote, U.S. intelligence believes that the fighting in eastern Ukrainian Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts will reach a stalemate, with Russia failing to make any significant gains.

Both Ukrainian and Russian forces are considered to have "moderate" combat sustainability, another reason that has led U.S. intelligence to believe that the fighting will go on for some time, Reuters wrote.

The documents are part of a larger classified U.S. military and intelligence files leak that first appeared on the social media network Discord. Following the leak, the Pentagon announced that it had launched an investigation into the source of the leaks.

According to one leaked document, Ukraine's air defense systems may face depletion by mid-April and early May unless replenished. Failure to do so could potentially increase the risk of Russian airstrikes.

Another alleged document from early February raises doubts about the planned Ukrainian counteroffensive, warning of significant shortfalls in force generation and sustainment. The document also suggests that Ukraine's future counteroffensive may only result in modest territorial gains.

Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov spoke about the intelligence leak during a visit to Spain on April 12, acknowledging that there is a "mix" of true and false information contained in them, the former already being outdated.

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