According to a U.S. intelligence alleged assessment from one of the possibly secret documents said to be leaked, Ukraine's problems with the accumulation of troops, ammunition, and equipment could allegedly lead to its military falling "well short" of Kyiv's initial goals for the expected counteroffensive, the Washington Post reported on April 10.
The reportedly leaked assessment dated by early February warns of considerable "force generation and sustainment shortfalls" and the likelihood that Ukraine's future counteroffensive will result in only "modest territorial gains," the WP wrote.
The publication called it a "marked departure" from the White House's public statements about the combat capability of the Ukrainian army.
The U.S. intelligence assessment, cited by the WP, indicates that Kyiv's strategy is to retake territory in the east and push south to cut Russia's land bridge to the occupied Crimea.
However, Russia's powerful defensive fortifications, combined with "enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies, will probably strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive," reads the document.
The information on the document was apparently obtained through intelligence and radio engineering, likely involving sensitive methods used by the CIA and the National Security Agency, according to the media outlet. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, which appears to have prepared the document, refused to comment on the matter, as did the National Security Council.
The previously undisclosed document is part of a trove of U.S. and NATO intelligence documents that were leaked over the past couple of months, appearing on the social media platform Discord.
The leaked documents, the source of which remains unknown, provide a grim assessment of the strength of Moscow's war machine. But the information also suggests the Ukrainian military is in dire straits, too. Among other things, some of the documents outline critical shortages of Ukrainian air defense munitions.